Unprecedented Climate Records Alarm Scientists
July 22, 2023
In a series of alarming climate records, scientists are expressing concerns about the unprecedented speed and timing of temperature changes, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice. The United Nations is warning that Europe is at risk of experiencing dangerous heatwaves that could break further records. While it is difficult to immediately attribute these events to climate change due to the complexity of weather and oceans, scientists are already worried that worst-case scenarios may be unfolding.
“I’m not aware of a similar period when all parts of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory,” says Thomas Smith, an environmental geographer at the London School of Economics. Dr. Paulo Ceppi, a climate science lecturer at Imperial College London, adds, “The Earth is in uncharted territory” due to global warming caused by burning fossil fuels and the heat from the first El Niño event since 2018.
So far this summer, there have been four notable climate records broken. The hottest day on record was experienced globally, surpassing the previous record set in 2016. The average global temperature exceeded 17C for the first time on July 6, according to the EU climate monitoring service Copernicus. This warming trend is primarily caused by ongoing emissions from burning fossil fuels. Climate scientist Dr. Friederike Otto states, “Humans are 100% behind the upward trend.”
The occurrence of these records breaking in June, earlier in the year than usual, is surprising to scientists. El Niño, a naturally occurring climate fluctuation, typically takes several months to have a global impact. Nevertheless, the average global temperature in June this year was 1.47C above the typical pre-industrial period.
When asked if the current summer conditions were forecasted a decade ago, Dr. Smith remarks that climate models are better at predicting long-term trends rather than short-term forecasts. He emphasizes that “things aren’t going to cool down” and that the next 10 years are difficult to predict accurately.
Another concerning record is the extreme marine heatwaves, with the average global ocean temperature breaking records for May, June, and July. Particularly alarming are the extreme temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, which is experiencing a marine heatwave for the first time. The linkage between this heatwave and climate change is complex and requires further research.
Antarctic sea-ice is also breaking records, with an unprecedented reduction that scientists struggle to attribute solely to climate change. Dr. Caroline Holmes from the British Antarctic Survey suggests that local weather conditions or ocean currents could also be contributing to this dramatic decrease. This reduction is significantly lower than any previously observed, and it signifies a pace of change that scientists cannot fully comprehend.
As we approach 2024, scientists predict that more of these records will continue to be broken. However, it is important to note that we are not experiencing a “climate collapse” or “runaway warming.” Dr. Otto emphasizes that while we are in a new era, we still have time to secure a livable future.
Additional reporting by Mark Poynting and Becky Dale.