“Up to 110% more contagious”

The Delta variant can be up to 110% more contagious. This was underlined by Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, during the press conference on the analysis of the data of the COVID-19 regional monitoring of the control room. “The increase in transmissibility of the Delta variant is estimated between + 33- + 110% and therefore in the worst case scenario a transmissibility in the upper limit of 1.3 is assumed”, said the expert, adding: “With this type of data, the projections at present show that in August there could be an increase in the occupancy of beds in the medical area and in intensive care with hundreds of more cases “. “But in all scenarios these figures are below the critical thresholds,” he said.

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“The Delta variant is projected to be dominant in the coming weeks,” said Brusaferro. “It is therefore important to trace contacts and foresee quarantines and it is advisable to achieve vaccination coverage with the double dose as soon as possible. This is one of the priorities”, he added.

“At the European level we are beginning to see parts of the continent where the situation of the” Sars-CoV-2 “virus is particularly intense. The data of Spain, which in some areas has a dark red color, and Holland, but also areas such as Cyprus and the island of Crete where the color “which shows an intensification of infections,” is rapidly darkening “. It is also seen “in areas of Southern France. This results in a rapidly growing curve” in such areas. And in this context also “Italy is starting to move”, he explained.

The contagion index “Rt is growing and goes from 0.66 of the previous week to 0.91 of this week and there are beginning to be regions that with the punctual Rt go above the value of 1 even if all have the lowest confidence interval are below “this threshold. “Rt increased, ie projected one week ahead”, reports 1.24. And hospital Rt is also growing “now and” it is consistent, because this index lags behind the growth of symptomatic Rt. “There are therefore” indicators of a regrowth phase of transmission. And we know that with Rt above 1 the number of cases tends to increase “, said the president of the Higher Institute of Health (ISS).

“The number of municipalities with at least one case does not decrease, they are 2,267 and last week they were 2,167. In many regions there is a reversal with a regrowth of cases. The most affected age groups are 10-19 years and 20- 29 years, an indication of a young population that contracts the infection more in this phase “, he said.

“Only 57% in the 60-69 age group have completed the” anti-Covid “vaccination cycle, in the case of the 70-79 year olds only 74%. And we know that today in our country there are about two and a half million people with more 60 years who have not “really” started vaccination. This is a particularly critical catchment area in a phase in which the circulation of the virus is recovering and will continue to spread. It is extremely important to protect these people “, so that “they protect themselves to avoid the most critical effects” of the infection, he then stressed.

“This is a phase” of the vaccination campaign “in which we are completing the vaccination cycle, an extremely positive step because we know that with the Delta variant the vaccines are effective above all with the second dose. However, we have limitations that we must try to compensate as much as possible. short time possible. In the over 80s, 90% have completed the vaccination cycle, but the more we decrease, the more the share of those who have completed the vaccination cycle is reduced. For example, in the 60-69 age group only 57% have completed vaccination “, has explained.


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