2024-04-17 16:38:14
3 minutes.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the United States and Europe will continue different paths with their interest rates. Although the pace of the Federal Reserve (FED) has changed and is now removed from the possibility of lowering the price of money, the European Central Bank (ECB) seems determined to do so. even though That difference would be temporary, it could involve some risksaccording to analysts.
President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, came to confirm that the two institutions are not dependentbut because the two organizations have followed different scripts the The euro has been worth less than the dollar for months. “For all those who work in the raw material markets, even the ordinary citizen, when buying oil – quoted in dollars -, a lower eurodollar makes all raw materials more expensive” explains XTB analyst Joaquín Robles.
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This story is also possible harming companies that trade abroad. But the key, according to the experts consulted by TVE, is inflation and the evolution of the economy, ai Europe and the United States are not moving at the same pace. “At the beginning of the year, up to six cuts of 25 basis points were expected in both Europe and the United States. Now in Europe there is talk of three cuts and in the United States there is talk of two, even one,” Robles explains .
As the director of analysis and strategy at Renta 4 Banco, Natalia Aguirre, explains, it is likely that the ECB will lower rates on June 6, but, on the other hand, the Federal Reserve will not lower rates on June 12. “We will probably have to wait until September at least to see what the United States does with its monetary policy,” says the expert.
Inflation is key, and if inflation continues above about 2%, Robles says he wouldn’t be surprised if they “start to continue delaying interest cuts” or “start talking about the possibility that a new rate will increase, which would completely disconcert the markets.
According to Aguirre, the geopolitical context the condition of the ECB, could show “in the medium term” more dependent on what the FED does. Tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine may torpedo price moderation. Both experts believe that The big threat is that inflation will not fall as expected. and that the central banks must keep their heavy hand.
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