US and Qatari officials have reported progress in efforts to restore a ceasefire in the US-Iran war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas and oil shipments. While the diplomatic optimism triggered a drop in oil prices, the strait remained virtually shut as of Tuesday, and a dry bulk cargo vessel was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Diplomatic Efforts and Mediator Roles
Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman are coordinating closely to exchange draft proposals between Washington and Tehran. Majed al-Ansari, the spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, stated that these diplomatic contacts have reached very progressive stages.
A senior Pakistani security official told Reuters that the current primary goal is to get both parties to agree to begin talking.
US officials have maintained an optimistic tone regarding the timeline for a resolution. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that there is a chance a deal to open the strait and move toward a normalized position could be reached by Tuesday or Wednesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also noted progress in the discussions, stating to reporters at the State Department, There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. We’re hoping that will happen very shortly
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Conflicting Claims on Direct Negotiations
Despite the optimism from Washington and Doha, Tehran has denied participating in direct talks with the US. This contradicts assertions made by Donald Trump on Monday, who claimed a breakthrough was imminent and that Iran faced a “last chance” to reach a deal.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei focused exclusively on ongoing “positive” talks with Oman. These discussions are centered on designating safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes to ensure the national security and sovereign rights of both Oman and Iran. The Iranian state-run broadcaster IRIB reported that these talks between the two coastal countries are focused on determining safe transit routes and developing mechanisms to manage shipping traffic.
Stakes and Obstacles to a Deal
The current negotiations aim to restore a ceasefire deal established in a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in mid-June. According to reports, the MoU was intended to halt fighting and reopen the strait while addressing other issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, during a 60-day negotiating period.
Several factors are complicating the diplomatic process:
- Internal Iranian Splits: Diplomats report a divide in Tehran between the foreign ministry, which fears that control of the strait may become a “wasting asset” as traffic finds alternative routes, and a faction that opposes any deal.
- Omani Concerns: The Omani government has resisted some Hormuz proposals due to fears that a temporary transit scheme could become permanent, granting Tehran an enduring say over sea routes in Omani waters.
- Unfulfilled Conditions: Mehdi Fazaeili, a member of the Office of Preservation and Publication of the Works of Iran’s Supreme Leader, told state television that some conditions of the MoU remain unfulfilled, specifically citing access to unfrozen funds.
Military and Economic Context
The blockade of the strait has provided Iran with significant economic leverage, though under customary international law, neither Iran nor Oman can generally charge tolls or block passage. Recently, tensions have escalated with the IRGC navy command warning that American bases in the region will experience hell in the coming days
following claims that US strikes violated the ceasefire.
Simultaneously, reports have surfaced regarding the sustainability of the US military campaign. Three people familiar with the data told Reuters that the US Army has depleted much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles, raising concerns about future military readiness.
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