U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in July from the previous month, bringing the 12-month cumulative consumer price index (CPI) annual inflation rate to 2.9 percent.
This is the first time in 3 years and 4 months (40 months) since 2.6% in March 2021 that the US CPI annual inflation rate has fallen to the 2% level.
Also, the core figure, excluding the energy and food sectors, recorded a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 3.2%. The core annual inflation rate of 3.2% is also the lowest in 43 months.
In June, the composite inflation rate was 3.0% and the core inflation rate was 3.3%. In July, both the composite and core inflation rates decreased by 0.1 percentage points.
The monthly inflation rate of 0.2% in July was an increase from minus 0.1% the previous month, but the annual inflation rate for the 12-month period fell from 3.0% in June to 2.9% in July.
This is because the annual inflation rate is calculated by calculating the monthly inflation rate backwards for 12 months. The negative monthly inflation rate (0.1%) in June was the first since May 2020, and the comprehensive annual inflation rate of 3.0% in June was the lowest since June 2023, a year ago.
CPI inflation then rose again, falling to 3.1% in January and reaching a one-year low of 3.0% in June.
Previously, the US CPI annual increase rate was recorded at 2.6% in March 2021, during the COVID-19 shock, but it jumped to 4.2% in April, a month after the economic recovery began, and the high inflation march began. Then, in June 2022, it reached 9.1%, the highest in 41 years.
Core inflation, excluding energy and food, hit 3.9% in December last year, the first time since May 2021 that it was above 3%, and fell to 3.3% in June before falling again to 3.2% in July. 3.2% is the lowest in 43 months.
With the CPI inflation this July recording 2.9% overall and 3.2% core, the possibility of the first interest rate cut since high inflation at the US Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 17-18 has increased.
The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the target range for the key interest rate frozen for the eighth time at 5.25-5.50% at the end of July. However, the employment report released earlier in July showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% and the monthly net increase in business jobs plummeted to 114,000, half of this year’s average, creating a strong environment for interest rate cuts.
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2024-08-16 02:34:32