Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases to Watch – February 8-14
A pivotal week for global economic data is upon us, with releases spanning inflation, employment, and GDP figures across major economies. From a snap election in Japan to crucial US data delayed by the government shutdown, investors will be closely scrutinizing these indicators for clues about the trajectory of monetary policy and economic growth.
Japan: Election Uncertainty and Wage Growth in Focus
Japan takes center stage this week, with two key events dominating the economic landscape. On Sunday, December’s average cash earnings data is due, with consensus estimates pointing to an acceleration to 1.0% year-over-year from 0.5%. However, November’s data revealed a slowdown, attributed to reduced bonus payments, leaving real wages negative despite easing inflation. ING anticipates a rebound in December, fueled by winter bonuses and declining inflation, potentially turning real cash earnings positive. A sustained improvement in wage dynamics, analysts say, would bolster the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) confidence in a wage-price cycle, supporting further rate hikes from the second quarter of the year.
Also on Sunday, Japan holds a snap election called by Prime Minister Takaichi. The aim is to capitalize on high approval ratings and secure a stronger majority in the Lower House, facilitating smoother policy implementation. Recent polls suggest the ruling coalition could exceed 300 seats, potentially achieving a two-thirds “super” majority, allowing them to override the Upper House. An LDP victory is expected to lead to a steepening of the yield curve and gains in the Nikkei, as it would open the door to expansionary fiscal policies. Conversely, a loss for the LDP could trigger a flatter yield curve and JPY strength, reflecting greater fiscal restraint and a higher tolerance for BoJ rate hikes.
Global Inflation and Central Bank Signals
Beyond Japan, the week is packed with inflation data. Chinese inflation figures for January are scheduled for release on Wednesday, with ING forecasting a cooling to 0.5% year-over-year due to Lunar New Year effects, while producer prices are expected to remain in deflation. Despite the recent uptick in headline inflation, underlying demand remains weak, making further policy support likely.
Several other nations will report inflation data this week, including Switzerland (CPI on Friday) and India (WPI on Friday). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, originally scheduled for February 11th, has been delayed to February 13th due to the partial government shutdown. While the Federal Reserve recently upgraded its economic assessment, it emphasized that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Analysts are closely watching for signs that tariff effects are fading, which could support policy loosening.
Central bank watchers will also be focused on the Bank of Canada (BoC) minutes from its January meeting (Wednesday). The minutes revealed a cautious approach, with the central bank emphasizing uncertainty and a willingness to respond to changing conditions. Governor Macklem has warned against misdiagnosing economic weakness, highlighting the risk of fueling future inflation if rate cuts are premature.
Labor Market and GDP Updates
The US labor market remains a key focus, with the January jobs report (Wednesday) rescheduled due to the government shutdown. Despite policy challenges, recent data suggests resilience, with initial jobless claims remaining low. Wells Fargo anticipates payroll growth of around 80,000 and unemployment steady at 4.4%, though risks to unemployment are seen to the upside.
The UK is set to release preliminary Q4 GDP figures on Thursday, with consensus expecting growth of 0.1% quarter-over-quarter. Investec forecasts a slightly higher 0.2% increase, supported by a recovery in car production and steady services output.
Other notable GDP releases include Norwegian GDP (Wednesday) and a second estimate for Eurozone GDP in Q4 (Friday).
This week’s economic calendar promises to be a critical test of the global economic outlook, with potential implications for financial markets and monetary policy decisions.
