Title: Talks between US and Saudi Officials Aim for Ambitious Middle East Diplomatic Breakthrough
Publication Date: July 27, 2023
Saudi Arabia – White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, conducted talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah in an attempt to achieve a groundbreaking diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. However, experts have deemed Saudi Arabia’s demands for brokering an Israeli-Palestinian respite as unlikely to be successful.
During the meeting, Sullivan and the Crown Prince discussed initiatives to promote a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world, according to a statement from the White House. The discussions were reported to have focused on exploring the possibility of a US-Saudi-Israeli-Palestinian understanding.
Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist, suggested that Sullivan’s visit was aimed at forging a grand bargain involving a US-Saudi security pact and the normalization of Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relations. Such a deal would require recognition of Israel, accompanied by Israeli commitments to improve the situation of Palestinians in the occupied territories, including halting settlement building and refraining from West Bank annexation.
However, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA Middle East analyst and White House adviser, expressed skepticism about such an extensive agreement. He cited Saudi Arabia’s preference for former US President Donald Trump, who was less critical of the kingdom’s human rights record and the Yemen war, as a possible reason why the Saudis would not favor a deal that would be advantageous to President Joe Biden.
Political barriers in the US, such as the difficulty of getting Senate approval for a security pact with Saudi Arabia, and the demands for substantial gains for Palestinians by Democrats, pose additional challenges. Furthermore, hard-rightwing elements within Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government are unlikely to accept proposals such as a settlement freeze or territorial transfers to Palestinian Authority control, undermining the possibility of progress towards a two-state solution.
Khaled Elgindy, an expert on Palestinian affairs, criticized the negotiations for sidelining Palestinian interests and agency. He emphasized that decisions regarding Palestinians should not be made without their involvement and stressed that any serious proposal should take this into account.
Other demands put forth by Saudi Arabia included US guarantees of defense assistance if attacked, approval for a US-monitored Saudi civil nuclear program, and the sale of advanced US air defense systems to the kingdom. Experts like Matt Duss, former foreign policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, dismissed these demands as unlikely to gain traction.
Despite the challenges, some experts believe there may be more modest gains to be achieved through engagement with the Saudi leadership. These include further efforts to de-escalate the conflict in Yemen and Saudi aid to the occupied territories to prevent a potential Palestinian uprising against Israeli settlements and other controversial measures.
The talks in Jeddah also addressed the progress made in Yemen, with the Sullivan and Prince Mohammed reviewing positive developments and welcoming ongoing UN-led efforts to end the war.
While the potential for a breakthrough remains uncertain, the discussions between US and Saudi officials signal ongoing efforts to pursue a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and promote stability in the region.
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