WASHINGTON, November 26, 2025 — The U.S. goods and services trade deficit unexpectedly surged to $56.8 billion in November, a dramatic 95% jump from the previous month, as ongoing U.S. tariffs continued to inject volatility into international trade, the Department of Commerce reported today. It’s a reminder that trade isn’t a simple equation, and policy shifts can have ripple effects.
Tariff Turbulence: A Trade Deficit Rebound
The November trade deficit marks the largest monthly increase on record, aside from a surge last January.
- Exports declined 3.6% in November, driven by drops in gold, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and crude oil shipments.
- Imports rose 5%, fueled by purchases of foreign pharmaceuticals and equipment for new data centers.
- The trade deficit had shrunk in recent months, a goal for some, but November’s increase signals ongoing instability.
- Economists caution against overemphasizing the trade deficit, citing numerous influencing factors and recent volatility.
The increase reverses a trend of shrinking deficits seen in prior months, which had been touted as a win for the administration. October’s deficit was the lowest recorded since June 2009. However, economists warn against reading too much into short-term fluctuations, especially given the unpredictable impact of tariffs.
What factors influence the U.S. trade deficit? The trade deficit, the difference between a nation’s imports and exports, is a complex metric influenced by global economic conditions, currency exchange rates, and trade policies.
Early in the current administration, companies accelerated imports to beat impending tariffs, initially widening the deficit. Following the announcement of broad tariffs in April, import shipments slowed. Fluctuations continued throughout the year as tariffs were announced, implemented, and modified for products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
These tariffs have reshaped trade relationships. From January to November, the goods trade deficit with China stood at $189 billion—lower than the deficit with the European Union and only slightly above the deficit with Mexico.
Despite importers adjusting shipment schedules to mitigate tariff impacts, the overall trade deficit through November remained 4.1% higher than the previous year. Exports rose 6.3% year-to-date, while imports increased 5.8%. Full-year data will be released in February.
“The increase in the trade deficit from October to November was the largest monthly increase on record, aside from the surge last January when the president returned to office,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She noted that gold trading and the pharmaceutical sector, “incredibly volatile in 2025,” were key drivers.
Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James, described the deficit increase as “larger than expected,” predicting a downward revision of U.S. economic growth projections for the fourth quarter. Because net imports are subtracted from GDP calculations, a shrinking deficit previously boosted growth estimates.
Further tariff changes are anticipated in the coming weeks. The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of many tariffs imposed under a 1970s emergency law. However, the administration has indicated it will pursue alternative legal avenues to maintain trade protections if necessary.
The government has invoked the emergency law to impose tariffs on a wide range of countries and products deemed vital to national security, including steel, copper, and upholstered furniture. By January, the effective U.S. tariff rate had climbed to nearly 17%, the highest level since 1935.
