Venezuela Raid Sends Ripples Across Taiwan Strait,Forcing Beijing to Reassess
The US military’s recent operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has ignited debate in Taiwan,prompting a reassessment of China’s calculus regarding a potential assault on the self-governing island.The swiftness and success of the operation, despite official assertions to the contrary, have raised questions about Taiwan’s vulnerability and the potential for US intervention.
The situation highlights the stark power imbalance between the US – possessing the world’s most formidable military – and Venezuela, a smaller nation of 30 million. This dynamic mirrors the relationship between China, with its 1.4 billion citizens and the world’s largest armed forces, and Taiwan, a democratic island of 23 million reliant on international support for its defense.
While the US action has drawn criticism internationally, with some questioning its legality, Beijing appears unlikely to fundamentally alter its long-held views on Taiwan. According to a former US diplomat in Beijing, “Beijing has not refrained from kinetic or other actions on Taiwan out of deference to international law and norms.It has pursued a strategy of coercion without violence.” A senior international relations scholar in Shanghai echoed this sentiment,stating,”Cross-strait relations are not international relations and are not governed by international law. The United States’ approach to Venezuela holds no relevance for cross-strait relations.”
Nationalist voices within China have further distanced the two scenarios. One prominent commentator on the Chinese social media platform Weibo argued that the US intervention in Venezuela was a violation of international law, while the situation with Taiwan is, according to Beijing, an “internal national affair.”
However, the events in Venezuela have prompted a degree of introspection within Taiwan itself. Many argue that the successful US operation could serve as a deterrent to China. A key observation centers on the performance of Venezuela’s China-sourced weaponry. Between 2010 and 2020, nearly 90% of china’s arms sales to the Americas were directed to Venezuela, according to ChinaPower, a research project hosted by the Center for Strategic and International studies.
“Why was the US military able to move in as if no one were there?” questioned Lin Ying Yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University in Taipei. She noted that Chinese-made jets had previously been viewed favorably after clashes between India and Pakistan, but the venezuela operation has prompted a reassessment. Sung Wen-Ti, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, added, “The US military’s capacity for a decapitation strike, especially against Venezuela’s largely Chinese defense systems, ought to provide a deterrent that makes Beijing think about putting their [military] to the test against Washington.”
Despite this potential deterrent effect, China’s military modernization continues apace. The US Department of Defense believes the People’s Liberation army (PLA) is on track to achieve its 2027 goal of a “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan, fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and hypersonic missiles. Last week,the PLA conducted extensive military drills around Taiwan,demonstrating its ability to blockade the island and counter external intervention.
The broader implications of the Venezuela raid extend beyond military considerations. The perceived lack of unified condemnation from Western nations, and the swift alignment of some leaders with Washington’s actions, has revealed a shifting global order. The UK Prime Minister,Keir Starmer,has notably refrained from condemning the US operation,despite expert opinions labeling it illegal under international law.
China has formally protested the US intervention, stating it “seriously violates international law and basic norms in international relations” and backing an emergency UN Security Council meeting to address its legality. Taiwan’s government has remained publicly silent on the matter, despite President Lai Ching-te’s repeated calls for upholding the international rules-based order as a safeguard against chinese invasion.
Within Taiwan, a popular blogger, Chiu Wei-chieh, urged the island to avoid actions that could invite similar intervention, such as becoming a source of drugs or refugees.”Taiwan should not become Venezuela,” he wrote in a widely shared Facebook post, emphasizing the importance of unity and popular support for the government.Ultimately, the situation serves as a stark reminder of the complex geopolitical landscape and the need for Taiwan to remain vigilant and resilient in the face of ongoing threats.
