Joe Biden wants to confront Xi Jinping – the Taiwan conflict fits that. Can this turn into a war?
On the subject of Taiwan, US President Joe Biden wants to demonstrate strength against China. Even if it seems undercooked and obstructs the view of cooperation, as is possible with Beijing in particular when it comes to climate protection. Some US thinkers struggle with the fact that the People’s Republic has long since ceased to be at the children’s table. Biden caused an uproar with his affirmative answer to a question at a citizens’ meeting as to whether the US would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. “Yes, we are obliged to do that,” he said. That came as suddenly as Biden’s statement in March that he thought Vladimir Putin was a killer. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there is currently no reason to “exchange blows” in the Taiwanese Strait, and government spokeswoman Jen Psaki said her boss did not want to say that policy on Taiwan has changed. Biden’s rhetoric followed President Xi Jinping’s address on the imperative of peaceful reunification. He spoke about this at a commemorative event marking the 110th anniversary of the 1911 Chinese Revolution.
More pressure on Taipei
Taiwan, a model capitalist country and about the size of Switzerland, is a long way from the USA and not a concern that grips the majority of voters. Security policy makers and politics already. A consensus is growing there that one must be ready for more confrontation with China, which is asserting its claims to a great power. In the 2021 annual report of the US secret services on the global threat situation, for example, there is an “epochal geopolitical shift” in China from the US point of view, and Beijing will put increasing pressure on Taiwan to give in to its desire for reunification.
US policy on Taiwan does not lend itself to catchy slogans. Despite all friendship: There has been no official diplomatic relations between the USA and the 23 million population of the Republic of Taiwan since 1979. In the Cold War against the Soviet Union, the USA, in the person of the anti-communist Richard Nixon, oriented itself towards the People’s Republic in terms of realpolitik. On the Taiwan question, Washington then held it with “strategic ambiguity”. That worked to prevent a catastrophic war. The US recognizes that Taiwan is part of China from the Chinese perspective, but rejects a change in the status quo. They strengthen Taiwan’s “defense capability” with arms exports steadily increasing in recent years. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen confirmed the presence of US military instructors in Taiwan to the US television broadcaster CNN at the end of October.
When Biden spoke of a protection promise in October, it was the second time. In an interview on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, it was about the possibly tarnished American credibility. The US has a “sacred obligation to reciprocate” at NATO if an alliance member is attacked, assured Biden. It would be the same with Japan, “also with South Korea, also with Taiwan”. All the more controversies about Taiwan run through US politics, sometimes in the form of conflicts between Republicans and Democrats.
Taiwan-Agenda
1949
Separatstaat The Kuomintang army under General Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) is defeated in the power struggle with the armed forces of Mao Zedong and flees to the island of Taiwan, which is declared the official territory of the Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China is founded on the mainland. Taiwan initially represents China alone at the United Nations and in the UN Security Council, and in 1954 concludes a defense pact with the USA.
1971
Statusverlust After the exchange of ambassadors between the USA and the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan became recognizably marginalized internationally, losing the status of being the sole successor state of the Republic of China, the UN seat and, in 1979, diplomatic recognition by the USA. These, however, declare themselves to be a protecting power with the Taiwan Relations Act. At present, 14 states still have official relations with Taipei.
1989
Democratization Internal reforms lead to the renunciation of one-party rule and a multi-party system with the blocs around the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the left and the Kuomintang Party (KMT) on the right. From the mid-1990s the president was directly elected, and from 2014 the “sunflower movement” became an extra-parliamentary corrective. In 2020, Taiwan ranks first among the Asian countries on the Democracy Index.
2000
Five no To ease relations with Beijing, President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) announced the “five no policy”. After that, they will not declare themselves independent, adopt a new state name, denote the relationship with mainland China as “intergovernmental”, hold a referendum on their own status and make no change in the principles for national reunification.
2016
Two-China policy Under President Tsai Ing-wen (DPP), the relationship between Beijing and Taipei has permanently deteriorated since Tsai distanced himself from the “1992 consensus” immediately after taking office in 2016. Politicians in Taiwan and China had informally negotiated this in 1992. His formula: There is only “one China”, but different ideas of what this China should look like. Tsai relies on “two Chinas” without explicitly saying so.
The obligation to use the armed forces for defense is not a decision that a president can make unilaterally, protested a US senator two decades ago in a comment for the capital city newspaper Washington Post. The president must consult “the American people and Congress”. The author of the statement was Joe Biden, who went on to say that the US is not obliged to defend Taiwan. Biden reacted at the time to the Republican President George W. Bush. He was asked by the television broadcaster ABC whether the US was obliged to defend Taiwan. Bush said, “Yes, we are, and the Chinese must be aware of that.” Would he intervene with the full force of the American military? Bush again: “Whatever it takes to assist Taiwan in self-defense.” Immediately after this interview, the State Department spoke up: US policy has not changed. At that time the explained New York Times“The essence of US policy since the 1970s has been to” keep the peace by leaving both sides in the dark “. Beijing should assume that the US will defend Taiwan. Taiwan should wonder how far the US would go. If the Taiwanese believed that mandatory protection of their security was ironclad, then “the Taipei government might be encouraged to go so far as to provoke a conflict in its dealings with Beijing.”
The Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based institute affiliated with the Democratic Party’s security policy environment, recently played out what the US could do if China occupies Taiwan’s Pratas Islands, an atoll in the South China Sea, in 2025. The answer: “As soon as China acts aggressively,” the simulation game “made it difficult for the United States, Taiwan and the international community to persuade Beijing to reverse its actions without unacceptably escalating”. The study spoke of the urgency of “developing an effective deterrent strategy” in advance. In Foreign Affairs, the magazine of the Council for Foreign Affairs, was recently talked about “War Games” at the Pentagon. It showed that a military clash between the United States and China over Taiwan would probably “end in a US defeat”. China could complete an invasion in days or weeks. Also in Foreign Affairs US Senator Bernie Sanders published an essay against the “zero-sum game” in the dispute with China in June. He feared that the pressure to confront would strengthen authoritarian, ultra-nationalist forces in both countries. US arms companies, on the other hand, see the threat scenarios as a substitute for losses resulting from the scaling back of the global war on terrorism announced by Biden.
Cake for President Xi
20 years ago China wanted to be integrated into the capitalist world in the USA. President Barack Obama tended to seek common ground and was later criticized for underestimating China. Donald Trump understood that the Chinese economic power worries many Americans. Despite the “beautiful chocolate cake” he served to President Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, his tenure began with punitive tariffs, ostensibly to protect American jobs, and ended with lies about the “China virus”.
Joe Biden hasn’t changed much about the trade war. Immediately after taking office, the State Department said it was “with concern” as the People’s Republic was trying to intimidate its neighbors, including Taiwan. “Our commitment to Taiwan is rock solid,” it said. If you only knew how ambiguous “rock solid” can be.
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