2024-07-10 12:25:29
July 5 dated and sent from Azerbaijan, was received by the research project “Sistema”, it was confirmed by two other EU officials, writes “Kyiv Post”.
In the letter, V. Orban said that during his visits he did not speak on behalf of the entire EU, but sought to understand the positions of both Ukraine and Russia. He elaborated on Putin’s approach, noting Russia’s belief that “the time is favorable for Russian forces, not for Ukraine.”
V. Putin did not mention Russia’s losses, but estimated Ukraine’s losses at 40-50 thousand. per month. This contrasts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s February. statement about 31 thousand according to the reports of dead Ukrainian soldiers and the US, about 70 thousand killed and 120 thousand injured in 2023
He reported that Putin was “surprised” by Zelensky’s refusal to conclude a temporary truce, which Zelensky feared Russia would use to regroup. Orban quoted Putin as “open to ceasefire proposals” that would prevent Ukrainian forces from redeploying.
V. Orban also touched on 2022. Istanbul agreements, which “V. Putin still considers important”. These agreements offered international security guarantees to Ukraine.
The fifth paragraph of these agreements stated that if neutral Ukraine was attacked, the guarantor states would provide security assistance. However, Russia insisted on vetoing this military aid, which Ukraine rejected.
In addition, V. Orban mentioned the “China-Brazil peace plan” being considered by Russia. V. Putin did not comment on V. Zelensky’s peace plan and in June peace summit in Switzerland.
During the trip, V. Orbanas on July 2. In Kiev, he met with V. Zelensky and offered to consider an urgent ceasefire and negotiations with Russia. Later on July 5 he met with V. Putin in Moscow and discussed Russia’s demands regarding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and non-membership of NATO.
Calling his efforts a “mission of peace”, V. Orban on July 8. also visited Beijing, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, highlighting China’s potential role in achieving peace.
No official has the right to mediate peace in Ukraine on behalf of the bloc without its approval, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a press conference in Warsaw alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “History remembers politicians who said they wanted a just peace, but what they really wanted was capitulation,” he added.
None of these circumstances deters the populist leader, who has long relished his role as a destroyer.
In April, the European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution expressing concerns about Hungary’s ability to “credibly carry out” the presidency, given its violations of the rule of law. But Orbán has not only embraced this largely ceremonial status, but has also taken advantage of it, recently making his first trip to Kiev since the Russian invasion.
At their weekly meeting on Wednesday, EU ambassadors intend to ask Hungary to explain V. Orban’s visits. According to an EU diplomat, who asked not to be named because of confidential discussions, several member states are concerned about how Budapest is using the presidency, Bloomberg reports. He added that they were concerned that Hungary was using the Presidency’s logo in some messages related to its meetings.
This week, V. Orban heads to the annual NATO summit in Washington, having already received promises to relieve Hungary of its obligation to help Ukraine. In comments on Monday, Hungarian government minister Gergely Gulyas did not rule out a meeting with Donald Trump before Orban returns home.
The former US president has said he wants a quick peace deal, and if elected in November, he might support Orban’s perspective. According to analysts, this shows that the Hungarian Prime Minister’s trip is a long-term strategy. They believe that V. Orban’s diplomatic offensive may not yield any tangible results so far and only annoy the main allies.
“It’s Orban-style diplomacy of shock and awe,” Daniel Hegedus, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, told Bloomberg. “The fact that he can do it without any negative consequences just gives him courage.”
The meetings further bolster the image of the EU’s longest-serving leader as a far-right icon, which he has honed for more than a decade with anti-immigration rhetoric.
The Hungarian prime minister has styled himself as a patron saint of nationalist figures who want to make a name for themselves. He effectively supported Marine Le Pen’s last French presidential election campaign.
Now he is using his influence to create a new European political group. In just over a week, “Patriots for Europe”, which V. Orbán founded together with Czech and Austrian allies, attracted parties from at least 10 countries.
The group scored its biggest win on Monday, joining Le Pen’s National Rally party, which unexpectedly failed to win Sunday’s snap parliamentary election but still has France’s largest contingent in the European Parliament. The move made Patriots for Europe the third largest group, overtaking the group led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni.
“Orban wants to play a bigger game, the main audience of which is the far right in Europe and possibly the far right in America and Donald Trump,” Jakub Jakobowski, deputy director of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, explained to Bloomberg.
“Being best friends with both China and radical Republicans is a difficult balancing act.” It works in Ukraine,” the expert added.
If V. Orban’s goal is to show that the EU cannot hold him back, then he is succeeding, according to D. Hegedus from the German Marshall Fund, who proposed as one of the possibilities to shorten Hungary’s presidency of the EU according to the principle of rotation – until the bloc takes action, it will be V .Orban’s show.
He “punches well above his weight,” said D. Hegedus. “He’s doing it very strategically, and there’s no sign that the EU has woken up and started doing something.”
Based on information from Kyiv Post and Bloomberg.
2024-07-10 12:25:29