Excess mortality in Russia over the two years of the pandemic is approaching the mark of 1 million people. Given that mortality data are released late, the sad milestone may already be crossed. This means that Russia could have suffered the largest human losses due to the pandemic since the United States. At the same time, vaccination in Russia is not proceeding at the highest rates. Why, even in the leading regions in terms of vaccination rates, more Russians still die than last year – in the DW material.
In October, the pandemic claimed the most lives of Russians
October 2021 set an anti-record for excess mortality in Russia during the pandemic. There are 100,509 more deaths in the country this month, compared with the October 2015-2019 average. Such data were published by Dmitry Kobak, a researcher at the University of Tübingen (Germany), who studies the figures provided by Rosstat.
Vaccination rates in Russia still leave much to be desired
Most Russians in excess of the five-year pre-pandemic norm died in October in Bashkortostan (4830 people), Moscow (4555) and Tatarstan (4491). From the headquarters for the fight against coronavirus there is more recent, but less accurate data on deaths from coronavirus in November this year. There, Sevastopol (72), Penza region (53) and Khakassia (53) are among the three anti-leaders in mortality per hundred thousand people.
According to official figures, morbidity and mortality are currently declining. Independent sociologist Aleksey Raksha makes his own estimates of the incidence rate by the number of relevant queries in search engines (for example, “coronavirus treatment” and “lost sense of smell”). The number of these requests is now also decreasing, from which the expert concludes that the incidence rate is declining, followed by mortality.
Large regions of the Russian Federation could already achieve herd immunity
Looking at the excess mortality table published by Dmitry Kobak, one can see that by the fall the situation in St. Petersburg has noticeably improved, in which in the spring and summer it was one of the worst in terms of this indicator. This is how vaccination and the coronavirus carried by the townspeople affected the statistics, says an epidemiologist from the University of Tampere (Finland) and director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Medical Research of the European University (St. Petersburg) Anton Barchuk.
Caricature by Sergei Elkin on the theme of the new wave of the pandemic
“Very large regions – Moscow and St. Petersburg – may be in the phase when the overwhelming majority either got sick or were vaccinated, – the scientist points out. – According to our research, more than 80% (residents of St. Petersburg either have been ill or have been vaccinated. – Ed.That is why, Barchuk suggests, the city is experiencing the current wave of the pandemic easier than the summer and autumn-winter last year.
The Penza region is the anti-leader in mortality from covid in November, while the rate of vaccination in it is one of the highest in the country. According to the portal Gogov.ru, 58.2% of the population have already been vaccinated there. More only in Tyumen (60%) and Belgorod regions (63%). At the same time, the excess mortality in the same Belgorod region this fall is still higher than last – when vaccination has not yet begun.
What Role Do Fake Vaccination Certificates Play?
“Even if 70% of the residents of the Belgorod Region have antibodies,” explains the paradox Anton Barchuk. “This is still not enough to stop the epidemic against the background of the delta variant. enough to fill facilities for a few more months and ensure high mortality rates. ” The epidemiologist emphasizes that the deaths would be even higher if 60% were not vaccinated.
Barchuk disagrees that fake COVID-19 vaccination certificates play a significant role in vaccination statistics. For example, Aleksey Zakharov, an associate professor at the Higher School of Economics, made a calculation according to which such certificates can be up to a third of their total number. And the medical director of the Semeynaya clinic, Pavel Brand, assumed that there might be about a quarter of them.
“It seems to me that this is an exaggerated problem and this is a problem, first of all, of the people themselves, who will not be protected from the coronavirus,” believes Anton Barchuk. “I can operate with the data of a representative anonymous survey that we conducted in St. Petersburg. We saw that the proportion of those vaccinated is the same as reported by the state. “
See also:
.