Nueva EPS Crisis Linked to Significant Rise in Preventable Deaths in Valle del Cauca
A new report reveals a concerning correlation between the ongoing institutional crisis at Nueva EPS and a marked increase in mortality among its affiliates in the Valle del Cauca department of Colombia. The analysis, conducted by the Health Secretariat of Valle del Cauca, points to systemic failures in healthcare delivery as a potential driver of these preventable deaths.
The report, dated February 2026 and based on data from the Single Registry of Affiliates (RUAF), examined mortality trends between January 2023 and January 2026. Researchers compared a 30-month baseline period with a subsequent seven-month “crisis period” marked by deepening instability within the insurer. The study encompassed 97,095 non-fetal deaths of Valle del Cauca residents, excluding those resulting from external causes.
According to the analysis, the central hypothesis centers on the idea that disruptions in service – including denied authorizations, medication shortages, interrupted treatments, and access barriers – are directly contributing to increased mortality rates among Nueva EPS members. “Systematic failures in the operation of Nueva EPS could be associated with an increase in the avoidable mortality of its members,” the report states.
During the baseline period, the monthly average of deaths was 619. However, as the crisis unfolded in late 2025 and early 2026, deaths surged, peaking above 700 and, in some months, nearing 800. Overall, Nueva EPS experienced a 14.1% increase in mortality during the crisis period, significantly higher than the 9.6% increase observed among other EPS providers in the region – a difference of 4.5 percentage points.
The report specifically highlights “care-sensitive causes” of death – those directly impacted by interruptions in treatment or access to care – as areas of particular concern. The most dramatic increase was observed in endocrine and metabolic diseases, particularly diabetes, with a 50.1% rise in monthly deaths, translating to an estimated 46 excess deaths during the crisis.
Communicable diseases, including HIV, tuberculosis, and pneumonia, also saw a notable 10% increase, resulting in an estimated 48 additional cases. Chronic respiratory illnesses like COPD and asthma increased by 12.8%, contributing to 19 additional deaths, while neurological conditions such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease rose by 17.5%, accounting for 21 more deaths. In total, these care-sensitive causes accumulated an estimated excess of 134 deaths.
The impact of the crisis was not uniform across the Valle del Cauca department. Cali experienced the highest concentration of excess mortality, with 71 additional deaths and a 10.5% increase, largely driven by respiratory causes, which grew by 22%. Palmira registered a 16.7% increase and 36 excess deaths, with respiratory causes increasing by a staggering 60%. Cartago saw one of the most significant percentage changes, with a 29% increase and 34 additional deaths, fueled by a 140% surge in respiratory-related fatalities. Tuluá and Seville also exhibited substantial increases, primarily linked to respiratory diseases. The ten municipalities most affected collectively accounted for an estimated 176 excess deaths.
The consistent rise in respiratory-related deaths across multiple municipalities suggests potential disruptions in essential care, such as failures in supplying inhalers, providing home oxygen, ensuring access to nebulization treatments, and facilitating timely hospitalizations.
Furthermore, the report identified a concerning trend in oncological care. Six types of cancer showed increased mortality rates among Nueva EPS members during the crisis, a pattern not observed in other EPS providers. Ovarian cancer saw a particularly sharp increase of 37% within Nueva EPS, contrasted with a 32% reduction in other insurers. A statistically significant differential was also noted in breast cancer cases, with a p-value of 0.043.
The Health Secretariat’s analysis concludes that RUAF data demonstrate a clear deterioration in mortality indicators for Nueva EPS affiliates in Valle del Cauca during the crisis. While the report acknowledges its limitations as a statistical analysis, the findings underscore the potential consequences of failures in healthcare service delivery on the health and survival of enrollees. The data reinforces growing concerns about the urgent need for intervention to stabilize Nueva EPS and ensure continued access to vital healthcare services for its members.
