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A recent telephone conversation between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and former U.S. President Donald Trump was described as “respectful and even cordial” by Maduro, though trump reportedly did not share the same assessment.the exchange occurred against a backdrop of escalating tensions, with the U.S. seeking a change in leadership in Venezuela, but facing critically important obstacles that suggest a military intervention could be counterproductive, according to intelligence assessments.
Intelligence Warnings Complicate Trump’s Strategy
By failing to secure Maduro’s removal from power, the U.S. management reportedly issued a warning regarding Venezuelan airspace – a move framed as a strategic “checkmate.” However, analysts suggest this tactic is unlikely to succeed. U.S. intelligence services are believed to have informed Trump about the unintended consequences of a narrative accusing Venezuelan generals of involvement with the “Cartel of the Suns,” an alleged network of narcoterrorists.
This accusation, rather than weakening the military, has reportedly galvanized the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).Military leaders perceive the allegations as a direct threat, fearing a regime change would lead to widespread purges and imprisonment of high-ranking officials. “They fear that a change of regime will lead to a persecution and purge in the FANB that
Intelligence reports also suggest that a military attack could trigger a spiral of violence and sabotage targeting Venezuela’s critical infrastructure, including pipelines, tanks, and oil docks.This would aim to prevent the U.S. from gaining control of the country’s valuable hydrocarbon reserves and mining resources.
A military intervention would also carry significant political costs for Trump. He risks being portrayed as a warmonger and facing a backlash from the 70% of Americans who oppose military action in Venezuela, potentially leading to Republican losses in future elections. Trump had previously pledged to avoid entangling the U.S. in another war.
Maduro’s Defiance and the Specter of Martyrdom
maduro is unlikely to surrender, preferring to risk “immolation” and be remembered as a martyr in the mold of Salvador Allende rather than suffer the humiliation of capture and public display, as was the case with Manuel Noriega. Should military attacks fail to fracture the civil-military-police alliance, Maduro could emerge strengthened as a symbol of anti-imperialist resistance, while Trump would be seen as having failed to achieve a regime change.
A path Towards a Negotiated Solution
Given these risks,the moast prudent course for Trump may be to demonstrate that the military deployment off the Venezuelan coast serves a diplomatic purpose – achieving a peaceful resolution without resorting to force. Instead of pursuing regime change through violence,Trump could leverage his influence to facilitate negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition.
A potential framework for negotiations could be based on the Venezuelan Constitution, wich stipulates that elections must be called within 30 days if the president resigns before completing the fourth year of their term. To ensure credible elections, the agreement would require the establishment of a new National Electoral Council, the renewal of the electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice, and the presence of qualified International Electoral Observation.this approach could position trump as a peacemaker and potentially open the door to a Nobel Peace prize.
Incentives for Maduro
To encourage participation, Maduro could offer concessions, including reactivating the agreement with the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and certifying Venezuela as free of illicit drug production. Regarding the issue of Venezuelan migration, Maduro could propose a plan for the return of migrants, potentially offering to facilitate the return of 3,000 migrants for each boat trip, significantly accelerating the process.
Ultimately, even if Trump pursues further pressure tactics, a risky military attack appears unlikely. A negotiated and peaceful solution to the Venezuelan conflict remains the most viable path forward, according to analysis of the situation.
Victor Alvarez, an economist and winner of the National Science Prize in venezuela, contributed to this assessment.
