2024-09-10 12:08:38
The outcome of the presidential elections in Venezuela this Sunday, July 28, 2024, could change the course of the region and Caracas’ relationship with Quito.
The presidential elections in Venezuela on July 28 will determine the continuity or the end of Chavismo. And, in turn, they will influence Caracas’ relationship with all the countries in the region, including Ecuador, where more than 400,000 Venezuelans have migrated.
However, President Nicolás Maduro, who is seeking a third term, has closed the consulates in Quito and Guayaquil, meaning Venezuelans living in Ecuador will not be able to exercise their right to vote.
The Chavista regime’s excuse was the assault on the Mexican Embassy in Quito and, out of solidarity, it ‘broke’ diplomatic relations. This despite the fact that there had been no political relations between the two countries since September 2018.
At that time, Ecuador and Venezuela expelled diplomatic representations in both nations. This crisis was triggered because the Venezuelan Minister of Communication, Jorge Rodríguez, called the Ecuadorian president, Lenín Moreno, a liar.
From that moment on, the bilateral relationship was politically frozen. However, Ecuador has continued to receive Venezuelans fleeing the crisis in their country. Although the governments in power have not been able to effectively regularize this population and its insertion into the formal economy.
The relationship between Ecuador and Venezuela
The bilateral relationship between Quito and Caracas was characterized by cordiality and fraternity. But it reached its peak during the decade of Rafael Correa’s administration, while Hugo Chávez was still in charge of the Miraflores Palace.
For example, in 2009, Ecuador became part of ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas), a Venezuelan regional cooperation initiative that has been dying since the death of Chávez.
And in 2010, both governments announced the creation of a series of binational projects and companies, despite the fact that they had already been collaborating on oil and gas projects and Venezuela had supported the creation of EcuadorTV in 2007.
The relationship was manifested in the signing of more than 100 bilateral instruments and numerous visits and exchanges between the various authorities of the two countries.
But that closeness came to an end when Lenin Moreno, Correa’s heir, came to power. In July 2017, the Ecuadorian Foreign Ministry complained to Caracas about Nicolás Maduro’s criticism of the legal proceedings against former President Correa.
At the beginning of August, Moreno did not send an ambassador to Caracas, after the departure of the then Correa representative from the post. And at the end of that same month, Ecuador also left ALBA. Until September 2018, when the Government expelled the Venezuelan ambassador in Quito and Maduro did the same with the Ecuadorian chargé d’affaires in Caracas.
Since then, political relations have never been restored and both Guillermo Lasso and the current president Daniel Noboa have kept their distance from the Chavista government.
Since January, the President has said that he would not recognize the results of the elections in Venezuela, because he does not believe that they are being carried out in a democratic environment or with guarantees. However, a victory for the Venezuelan opposition could open the doors to a change of position in Ecuador and a reestablishment of bilateral relations.
This is how the commercial relationship evolved
The best moment in trade relations with Venezuela was 2011, when Ecuador exported USD 1.474 billion. Among the products sent were cars.
In fact, Venezuela was a very important market for the Ecuadorian industry for local production of vehicles and auto parts. In 2012, 10,315 vehicles were exported.
But the exchange control system imposed by the Venezuelan government (common people and businessmen only had access to quotas of dollars) left Venezuelan importers unable to pay, and they accumulated debts with exporters, including those from Ecuador.
Hence, trade between the two countries has been steadily declining.
In fact, in 2023, Ecuador exported only USD 53 million to Venezuela. Imports suffered the same fate.
Ecuador’s imports from Venezuela fell from USD 916 million in 2011 to USD 40 million in 2023.
Currently, exports to Venezuela represented only 0.16% of all Ecuadorian exports in 2023.
Venezuela and the region
Venezuela will go to the polls with a battered economy and a latent migration crisis. And after twenty-five years in power, Chavismo faces a majority opposition at the polls, which ratified diplomat Edmundo González as its candidate.
After several years in the red, Venezuela has seen a slight improvement in its economy. President Nicolas Maduro said in February that the economy grew 5% in 2023 and projected an increase of at least 8% for this year, according to CNN.
In addition, to date, nearly 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country, according to data compiled by the UN, while the Chavista Executive has reduced the exodus figure to 2 million people, of whom – the Government claims – half have already returned to the Caribbean country.
And all countries in the region have witnessed the journey of millions of Venezuelans who have traveled through their cities and highways, looking for a new home. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite the fact that several countries closed their borders.
The situation is therefore different from that of 2018, when Nicolás Maduro was re-elected with virtually no opposition. Venezuela has now changed its economic, social and political appearance, a circumstance that will likely influence the outcome of the elections.
And the election results on Sunday will determine how much this phenomenon has affected Chavismo, which, after 25 years in power, faces at the polls a majority opposition within Venezuela and a vigilant international community.
Maduro’s attitude, in the face of his refusal to leave power if he loses, has even cost him the support of leftist leaders in the region, such as Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Brazil’s Lula da Silva and Argentina’s Alberto Fernández.
By: PRIMICIAS / Photo XINHUA