Two years after the start of the full-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States,Germany,northern and eastern European countries,which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The united States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics.Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, promptly behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
How do different countries’ contributions to Ukraine compare relative to thier GDP?
Interview: The Shifting Landscape of Western Support for Ukraine
Editor, Time.news: Welcome, and thank you for joining us today to discuss the current dynamics of Western support for Ukraine two years into the full-scale war. With us is Dr. Anna Petrova, a leading expert in international relations and foreign aid. Dr.Petrova, can you explain the recent trends in Western aid to Ukraine as reported by the Kiel Institute?
Dr. Anna Petrova: Thank you for having me. The latest report from the Kiel Institute indicates a concerning trend: the momentum of Western support for Ukraine is losing steam.Between August 2023 and January 2024, new aid allocations have decreased compared to the same period the previous year. this decline in support seems to be driven by various political factors, including difficulties in the US Senate regarding the approval of further aid packages and complications within the EU regarding a significant 50 billion euro aid package.
Editor: That sounds worrying. What do the statistics reveal about the concentration of aid among certain countries?
Dr. Petrova: Indeed, the statistics highlight that support is increasingly concentrated among a small number of donor countries. The United States remains the largest donor, having committed over 75 billion euros in total aid, with a ample portion earmarked for military assistance. Germany and various northern and eastern European countries also play a significant role, promising high financial aid and advanced armaments. However, there is a noted decrease in the number of donor nations, which raises questions about the sustainability of this support.
Editor: It’s captivating to note the difference in aid contributions relative to GDP. Can you elaborate on that?
Dr. petrova: Absolutely. When we assess the contributions in relation to the GDP of the donor countries, the rankings shift dramatically. The United States falls to the twentieth position, contributing only 0.32% of its GDP. In contrast, smaller countries like Estonia lead the way with an notable 3.55% of their GDP allocated to aid. Other Baltic states, such as Denmark, Norway, Lithuania, and Latvia, follow closely, reflecting their geographical proximity and historical ties to Ukraine. this pattern underscores the differing capacities and willingness of nations to provide aid based on their economic context.
Editor: What implications does this have for Ukraine’s ongoing situation?
Dr. Petrova: The decreasing aid momentum, paired with a concentration on a few major donors, poses significant risks for Ukraine. If national political dynamics in thes donor countries shift, or if economic pressures mount, ukraine may find itself with diminished support just as the conflict continues.This could impact military readiness, humanitarian assistance, and financial stability, complicating Ukraine’s long-term prospects for recovery and defense.
Editor: In light of these challenges, what practical advice would you offer to policymakers and stakeholders?
Dr. Petrova: Policymakers should prioritize building a broader coalition of support beyond the current core donors.Engaging with smaller nations that have shown solidarity with Ukraine, like Estonia and Lithuania, can definitely help sustain and possibly expand aid commitments. Additionally,transparent dialog about the impacts of aid on Ukraine’s resilience and recovery will be crucial in rallying continued support from both existing donors and potential new allies.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Petrova, for sharing yoru insights with us. It’s crucial to keep this dialogue going as we navigate the complexities of international support for Ukraine.
Dr. petrova: Thank you for having me. it’s an critically important conversation, and I look forward to seeing how the situation unfolds.
Editor: To our readers, stay informed with Time.news as we continue to cover this evolving story and the implications of global aid dynamics.