2024-05-28 16:13:08
If Ursula von der Leyen needs to take a seat on the head of the European Fee for a second time, she’s going to in all probability have to arrange a much less inexperienced program than 5 years in the past. Her nomination isn’t anticipated to be a shock, however within the European Parliament, which approves the brand new head of the fee, a realignment of forces is about to happen. Pre-election fashions count on the strengthening of European Parliament factions which can be vital of the Union.
When presidents and prime ministers select new heads of European establishments on the June post-election summit in Brussels, the geographical, political and gender steadiness of your complete “group” will play a task. In brief, all the pieces has to suit collectively properly. It’s not uncommon for nomination summits to finish with a giant shock.
Picture: EU
“It has already occurred many occasions that the obvious favorites misplaced their manner and sudden candidates succeeded, which was additionally the case with von der Leyen 5 years in the past,” remembers the story of the present head of the European Fee, Viktor Daněk, deputy director of the Europeum assume tank.
The title of the previous German protection minister actually appeared on the final minute as a compromise, as a result of the unique candidate of the victorious Folks’s Get together, Manfred Weber, was not acceptable to all of the leaders.
This time, nonetheless, there are not any surprises within the nomination for the pinnacle of the fee, as von der Leyen has a robust place and clear help from the vast majority of states. The leaders will in all probability attain for it a second time.
“I take into account the assorted controversies which have now arisen round her to be extra like a pre-election storm in a glass of water. Von der Leyen has clearly mastered her function, she has efficiently guided Europe by means of unprecedented crises and the leaders of the member states have appreciated this many occasions. She has a stable place inside the European Folks’s Get together, which she’s going to in all probability win the election. I additionally take into account her resolution to guide the folks to the election and actively take part within the marketing campaign,” mentioned Daněk.
Political scientist Markéta Pitrová from the College of Social Research of Masaryk College additionally believes that the German girl will obtain her second nomination in a row. “Member states face many threats and wouldn’t have the capability to discover a new compromise chief. The present president has a bonus within the readability of her place in direction of Ukraine and acceptability for the USA,” the skilled says.
Based on Pitrová, the states will steadiness this conservative alternative by on the lookout for new faces for different positions, for instance for the function of Excessive Consultant for International and Safety Coverage and President of the European Council. Solely with these names can the aforementioned balancing of pursuits be extra clearly manifested. For instance, there’s discuss {that a} consultant of Central or Jap Europe might attain one in every of these positions.
Vote of confidence within the European Parliament
Nonetheless, successful the nomination is just step one, then comes the “vote of confidence” within the European Parliament, the place the aspirant should acquire the votes of the vast majority of MEPs. That is the place von der Leyen might run into an impediment.
“Up to now interval, the bulk within the election was very fragile. With the rise of anti-EU MPs and, furthermore, additionally because of criticism after the scandals surrounding communication with the pharmaceutical trade and the election of a consultant for small and medium-sized enterprises within the European Parliament, the opposition will definitely develop in opposition to it,” thinks Markéta Pitrova.
Pre-election fashions actually count on the strengthening of these European Parliament factions which can be vital of the Union. Thus far, it’s unclear who will type the subsequent “authorities” majority. It’s virtually sure, nonetheless, that the most important political teams thus far, i.e. the Folks’s Get together and the Socialists, will be unable to face on their very own once more. So they’ll want a 3rd, possibly even a fourth. Liberals and conservatives from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group are primarily within the recreation.
Based on Viktor Daňko, the realignment of political forces in all probability doesn’t imply that the MEPs will situation a cease signal to von der Leyen this time, however it might have an effect on this system and political priorities of her new fee. In brief, the German politician should draw up her plans in such a manner that she pleases the present majority.
“If the conservatives from the ECR grow to be the tip of the scales, which von der Leyen herself already admits as a chance, then this might imply a big change in path, for instance a way more cautious strain in local weather coverage and a considerably better emphasis on the subject of the competitiveness of the European economic system, which in spite of everything, she herself guarantees,” estimates the previous correspondent of the Czech Radio in Brussels.
“Nonetheless, it’s tough to evaluate but how doubtless such a state of affairs is. Ultimately, every vote might matter,” provides Daněk.
The winding path from program to vary
As for help from Czech MEPs, it’s going to rely lots on precisely what program von der Leyen comes up with this time. In interviews for Euractiv.cz, each the tremendous chief of the Spolu coalition, Alexandr Vondra, and the primary title on the candidate listing of the ANO motion, Klára Dostálová, mentioned this. Pirates converse equally.
In any case, there’s a winding street from this system to an actual change within the path of the European Union. “A very long time will cross between the inaugural guarantees and the truth of submitting legislative proposals. It’s extra on the stage of political belief than any actual enterprise between the fee and the parliament,” Pitrová defined in conclusion.