Vonovia’s board has adjusted the company’s 2026 forecast and presented a new forecast for 2027, while updating its 2028 targets. The company anticipates adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBITDA) at the lower end of its previous range of €2.95-3.05 billion.
Revised 2026 and 2027 Forecasts
Vonovia issued its first forecast for 2027, anticipating a slight increase in operating profit compared to 2026, with organic rental growth expected to be around 4%. The company’s rental income for 2027 is expected to be approximately €3.55-3.65 billion.
Impact of Higher Financing Costs
These factors are impacting both the company’s sales and development segments. Despite these headwinds, Vonovia’s core rental business remains strong.
2028 Targets Adjusted Downward
Vonovia’s new forecast takes into account higher financing costs, lower contributions from recurring sales and development, and slower organic rent growth. The company’s operating free cash flow (OFCF) for 2027 is expected to be around the 2026 level, while its adjusted shareholder earnings are expected to be slightly above 2026 levels.
Market Reaction and Analyst Views
Following the announcement, Vonovia’s stock price saw a slight decline.
JPMorgan maintained an “Overweight” rating on the stock with a price target of €26. However, analysts acknowledge that the political climate in Berlin, particularly regarding potential rent controls and expropriation debates, continues to add uncertainty.
Strategic Adjustments and Liquidity
Vonovia is implementing measures to protect its liquidity and has a plan in place to manage the challenging market conditions. These steps aim to ensure the company’s long-term financial stability.
The Vonovia stock currently has a market capitalization of approximately €13.97 billion.
Vonovia’s 2026 forecast and 2027 outlook have been impacted by the current market conditions. The company’s ability to adapt to these challenges will be crucial in the coming months.