VORALBERG. If political pollsters’ predictions are correct, state elections may not favor the ÖVP for the first time since 1945, and the FPÖ could knock it out of first place. While the state of Vorarlberg has always been a tough place for the Social Democratic Party of Austria, SPÖ for short, the Greens achieved a historic second place in 2019 and reached Neos club status. In Voralber, four smaller parties also hope to enter the state parliament by passing the five percent threshold.
Whether the elections will really turn into a political earthquake or not will become clear when the first election is broadcast on projection TVs after 14.30.
What is the starting position?
ÖVP third time Markus Wallner Under his leadership, he is entering a regional election in Vorlaberg, where he is the top candidate for State President. Its starting position could have been worse: in the last state elections in 2019, the People’s Party won 43.53 percent of the vote and 17 seats. With this result, it ranked first in all 96 municipalities and exceeded the 50 percent mark in 55 municipalities. However, the recent Austrian Parliament National Council elections have raised doubts about whether this situation will continue. The 57-year-old provincial governor expressed a concern he did not hide during the election campaign: “Everything is at stake; I said it clearly: second place is unimaginable. If ÖVP loses the first place to FPÖ today, everything will be in turmoil in Vienna.”
If the ÖVP does not come out on top in the polls for the first time in 79 years (the only published poll was from August and predicted 31 percent for the ÖVP, albeit with a margin of volatility of 4.4 points), it will suffer the consequences.
One thing is certain: at Wallner’s premiere ten years ago, the ÖVP had its worst result to date, with 41.79 percent. Since 2014 (then Minister of Health John Rauch was still in office) the federal state is governed by the black-green coalition under Wallner.
greens In 2019, it highlighted the issue of climate change and, riding the wave of the “Fridays for Future” movement, achieved the historical best result of 18.89 percent, ranking second after the ÖVP.
The 39-year-old party leader, who has been at the head of the party since 2021 (together with Eva Hammerer) and will replace Rauch in the state parliament in 2022 Daniel Zadra The issue now is to maintain this position to carry the black-green coalition to a third term. Although there has not always been harmony in the state government in recent times; The ÖVP and the Greens have frequently disagreed, especially on transportation issues. However, this effort is not expected to be very easy, as opinion pollsters predict a negative outcome.
FPÖ‘s top candidate, Christof Bitschi, is also pushing for the next government. But during the election campaign he did not want to engage in a duel for first place: 33-year-old Bitschi emphasized that it was not about positions of power, but rather about dialogue with the public. In any case, the FPÖ Austrian Freedom Party has a lot to make up for: five years ago, after the “Ibiza scandal”, its votes fell by 9.49 points to 13.93 percent. They had previously generally achieved a vote share of over 23 percent; now that poll even showed around 25 percent (including the swing margin, which could result in a neck-and-neck race with the People’s Party). Meanwhile, a coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ would not be a novelty for Vorarlberg: although the ÖVP could govern alone, it only did so from 2009 to 2014. The SPÖ governed together from 1945 to 1974, and the FPÖ from 1949 (as VdU until 1959) until 2009.
Traditionally weak in Vorarlberg SPÖ also wants to join the government with its top candidate, Mario Leiter, who has had to live with a vote rate below the ten percent threshold since 2014. In 2019, however, the Social Democrats managed to register a small increase of 0.69 points, with 9.46 percent, but still failed to reach the five percent limit, which is a prerequisite for entering the state parliament in addition to the basic mandate in 38 of 96 municipalities, Vorarlberg ( Obtained in the Bregenz region). There was even a “zero” in Damüls and Dünserberg. The party currently has three members in the 36-member state parliament. The 59-year-old leader, who took over the party in October 2023, now hopes for growth.
Neos Its leader, Claudia Gamon, wants to increase Pinken’s 8.51 percent to “joint government size.” The results in the Austrian National Council elections (over 13 percent) and the European elections (over 15 percent) showed that this was not impossible. The 35-year-old politician also wants to retain or increase the three mandates for which the party gained club status five years ago. Whether this will be successful is as clear as the question of whether Matthias Strolz’s resignation from the party will have an impact on voting behavior. After all, Neos had achieved his second-best result in Strolz’s hometown of Dalaas five years ago with 12.28 percent, behind Schröcken (12.84 percent).
Sascha Kulasevic too KPÖ He is participating in the race for. But small parties have little chance: To win one of the 36 seats in the state parliament, they must either win a core mandate in one of four regions (Bregenz, Dornbirn, Feldkirch, Bludenz) or reach more than five percent of the vote in the state. (APA, Die Presse)
2024-10-13 07:19:00