2023-05-05 13:34:00
Analyse
war in Ukraine
Wagner boss wants to move out of Bachmut – why that’s not good news
Yevgeny Prigozhin in front of his dead men.
Amidst his fallen mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin settles accounts with the Russian military. Prigozhin threatens that he will withdraw from Bakhmut because he cannot get ammunition. You shouldn’t be happy about that, militarily it is right to detach the mercenary troop from the street fights. For them there is a much more important task.
For the second time in a few days, the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, “fired” two videos. In the first video, the “chef” spoke to “War Gonzo”, Semyon Pegov, a blogger highly regarded by Russian nationalists. Pegow has reported from the front lines in all conflicts over the past few years. His vehicle was shot at and he was injured. The ardent nationalist does not make it easy for the Russian military, whose failure is mercilessly denounced. In the second video, Prigozhin stalks between the corpses of his men. Too many would have to die because his troops did not get enough ammunition, is his accusation and a threat is added. The Wagner boss threatens to withdraw his mercenaries from Bachmut on May 10th. Fighting without ammunition is pointless.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, PR weapon and people’s tribune
What’s behind it? Prigozhin’s performances are not accidental, they aim to evoke a specific reaction. A different one than the West likes to assume. Prigozhin is a wild man. In his tirades he shoots out swear words like a machine gun. He is Putin’s people’s tribune, doesn’t mince his words, and rails against Russia’s civilian and military elites. Is he ordinary? Certainly, but every Russian will understand him. It’s all PR. A field in which Moscow is struggling. Compared to the nimble Zelenskiy, Putin looks like he is: an old, sick man whose best days are long gone. His generals are not cut out for the world of social media. Her performances are unintentionally funny. Sweating and awkward, they “report”. It feels like a journey back in time to the Soviet past, like a live broadcast from the Brezhnev era.
Prigozhin, on the other hand, is a lansquenet type, a warlord. He occupies the same role in the Kremlin’s propaganda circle as the Russian “heroes” of the 2014-2015 struggles. Like the eccentric commander Igor Girkin, the commanders “Motorola”, Arseny Pavlov and “Givi”, Mikhail Tolstykh. At the same time, Prigozhin is putting pressure on Moscow’s elite, whether civilian or military. Guys who would sit in their “fat mahogany offices” up front and have no idea what he was ranting about and would think war was just a game as long as they could keep their spoiled brats out of it.
Pressured the elites
In the West, only the CIA will probably know what that really means for the Kremlin’s power apparatus. It can be assumed that Prigozhin’s failures will ultimately benefit his master, Putin, because the attacks increase the president’s options against the powerful. In Russia, the idea of the “good tsar” is still present, or it is nurtured by the Kremlin. The military and administration may be incompetent and corrupt, but not Putin – so the misconception goes. At least that is the tenor of the videos of dissatisfied soldiers complaining about their superiors, lack of weapons and other things, but always claiming to be true patriots and asking only that Putin help them win the war.
Preparing for Kiev’s offensive
There are several passages in the speech that Westerners will enjoy hearing. For example, the Russian losses and the assessment that the Wagner group will simply disappear because of the many dead. But what do you think of the announcement to withdraw from Bachmut? The retreat is militarily imperative. The urban area of Bakhmut is almost completely in Russian hands. From Moscow’s point of view, the conquest of the city is actually complete. Another Meat Grinder-style battle in the next settlement would be highly unwise at this point. Because Russia has to prepare for the Ukrainian spring offensive in order to stop it or possibly crush it. And for this it is necessary to pull the most combative troops out of the front line and create a mobile reserve with them. Which can then be used on the endangered sections. The positions of the Wagner mercenaries could be occupied by second-rate troops who would not continue to attack in this area, but only have to hold their positions. Then Moscow could give the Wagner mercenaries a few days’ rest, their units could be replenished and equipped. After that, the Kremlin would have a firefighting force that would be deployed if Kiev’s soldiers managed to break through the Russians’ static defense lines. But that cannot happen if the Wagner mercenaries are stuck in house wars. It is impossible to relocate them quickly. Especially when the Ukrainian armed forces do everything they can to prevent such a shift. However, it would be far better for Ukraine if Putin’s elite troops remained tied to Bakhmut.
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