2023-08-13 20:06:44
Berlin After his vacation, Olaf Scholz was slow to get involved in federal politics. After returning from southern France, the Chancellor toured his Brandenburg constituency this week, then campaigned in Hesse until he returned to the federal political stage in Berlin on Sunday with a “summer interview” on ZDF.
Probably involuntarily, Scholz covered all the problem areas that await him in the near future with his little trip to Germany. In response to demands from the coalition to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, he said in the ZDF interview: “We will continue to make it difficult for ourselves.” When asked about the economic downturn, he promised falling energy prices through renewable energies. The fight against the right-wing extremists will also be a major political challenge in the coming months. In Brandenburg, the AfD is currently the strongest force.
In the state elections in Hesse in October, the SPD faces a bitter defeat. In Berlin, the traffic light has to brace itself against an economic downturn. But the financial leeway is tight – which is why a new coalition dispute about new debts is already emerging.
Scholz’ SPD has so far been the calming influence among the three traffic light parties. But the poll high of the AfD and its own fall to below 20 percent have not left the chancellor party cold. In the meantime, there is great concern in the SPD that they will end up in a downward spiral: first losing the state elections in autumn, then the European elections next June and then the three elections in East Germany in autumn 2024 – and at the same time having to endure the triumphant howls of the AfD must.
A few days ago, Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) from Brandenburg, where elections will also be held next year, demonstrated the level of nervousness, particularly in the federal states. “Not only I, but all SPD Prime Ministers would like the SPD to assume its role as a strong social force in the federal government,” Woidke said in an interview.
When asked by the Handelsblatt, none of the SPD prime ministers, whom Woidke had held jointly and severally liable, wanted to join in the criticism. But frustration with the chancellor is unmistakable. “Of course things aren’t going optimally,” says a comrade. Scholz’s calm, level-headed manner is appreciated. But the chancellor’s communication has recently been very poor again.
Criticism of Scholz from the Bavarian SPD
This impression has also strengthened in the population. According to the “Politbarometer extra” published on Sunday, a majority of Germans find Scholz’ communication poor and consider him weak in asserting himself.
Florian von Brunn, the SPD’s top candidate for the state elections in Bavaria, expresses his displeasure more openly than many comrades: “I would like to see more edge against the Federal Minister of Finance’s cold austerity course,” he says, followed by a clear warning. “But I don’t think the SPD will allow such cuts. That is wrong and only benefits the AfD.” So far, however, Scholz has supported Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s (FDP) budget course.
The traffic light chaos of the past few months has only given one tailwind in Bavaria: Prime Minister Markus Söder. Although the CSU boss is by no means overly popular, the SPD is threatened with a single-digit result in October.
>> Read here: Interview with Harald Christ – “The AfD costs us prosperity”
While a bad result is priced in in Bavaria, the SPD in Hesse has reckoned with a chance of overthrowing the black-green state government in the elections. But the SPD is currently seven percentage points behind the CDU with 22 percent. And top candidate Nancy Faeser is doing little to improve her chances.
Olaf Scholz on a summer trip to Brandenburg
During her candidacy, Faeser had declared that she would remain Federal Minister of the Interior in the event of an election defeat. Even then, many comrades thought that was an unfortunate signal to voters in Hesse. And since then there has also been the question of how Faeser wants to be interior minister and campaigner at the same time.
Exactly this dilemma became obvious now. When Faeser suggested tightening up deportations last week, it was also criticized within the SPD as a clumsy election campaign maneuver. Faeser had to “pack her CDU opponent Boris Rhein differently than praying after him,” complains a comrade. Scholz stood behind Faeser on Sunday. He submitted a corresponding proposal to the federal states.
Scholz wants to prioritize economic policy
The uncomfortable political mood puts Scholz under pressure. The chancellor is convinced that the AfD’s flight will not last forever. But in the SPD, many now consider purposeful optimism to be insufficient. Instead of appeasement, the SPD needs a clear program against the AfD.
Scholz wants to make economic policy the focus of traffic lights in the coming months. That makes sense in view of the economic situation, but trouble is threatening again here.
This Wednesday, the federal cabinet passed Lindner’s “Growth Opportunities Act”, which provides relief for companies. The SPD and Greens consider the volume of around seven billion euros to be far too low. “It’s like shooting sparrows at cannons,” says a comrade.
Even if many economists advise against an economic stimulus package, the pressure on the traffic lights to present big plans to combat the downturn before the state elections is increasing in view of the dreary economic situation.
>> Read here: This is how Lindner wants to relieve companies
In Scholz’s political logic, too, a new “boom” against the economic crisis would be obvious, the Chancellor has surprised people several times in the past with gigantic anti-crisis programs or sudden tax cuts. In doing so, Scholz himself also fueled certain expectations. Only: this time the money is missing, at least if the traffic light wants to comply with the debt brake as agreed.
Christian Lindner
The plans of the liberal finance minister to relieve companies are not enough for the coalition partners.
(Photo: Reuters)
The SPD and the Greens are calling for unused debts from the energy defense umbrella of around 100 billion euros to be used to finance an industrial electricity price, for example. “We have to invest much more: in social and affordable climate protection, economic innovation and education. Just as I propose in my plan for Bavaria,” says SPD top candidate von Brunn. Only Finance Minister Lindner rejects such a reallocation of funds.
But that is not the end of the debate. If a CDU prime minister like Kai Wegner recently called for the debt brake to be suspended, it will only be a matter of time before the same demand is made by the SPD and the Greens.
>> Read here: Germany’s economy is facing a difficult second half of the year
And the SPD and the Greens will not give up their call for tax increases either. The “Networkers”, an association of 50 pragmatically oriented members of the SPD parliamentary group, made the first serve at the weekend.
In an impulse paper, they are pushing for a higher inheritance tax, not at some point, but immediately. “Given the urgency, a solution is needed by the end of 2023,” the paper says.
On the other hand, Lindner will block with all his might. So far, finance ministers and chancellors have pulled together on all budgetary issues. But the situation has changed. The country is now in crisis and election campaign mode. Nothing seems to be particularly attractive for Lindner and even less for Scholz.
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