2024-07-22 23:56:59
Investing.com – President Joe Biden has ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential race, Biden announced his decision in a statement on Sunday, describing it as “ the greatest honor” of his life to serve as president and said his withdrawal was in the interest of his party and the country.
This announcement ends a turbulent period in US politics, which began with Biden’s inconclusive performance in the debate against Donald Trump on June 27. Despite his withdrawal, Biden will remain president until January.
Kamala Harris, 59, expressed gratitude for Biden’s support, saying she felt “honored” and committed to “conquer and win this nomination” to unite the country against Trump.
Although Harris has received the support of many prominent figures in the Democratic Party, her official nomination will only be confirmed at the Democratic National Convention, which will be held in August.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who was recently confirmed as the Republican nominee at the party’s convention in Milwaukee, is leading in the polls. This convention took place just five days after he survived an assassination attempt.
Opinions from Wall Street analysts
Check out what some Wall Street analysts said about Biden’s withdrawal below:
Citi:
“So far, the electoral odds have narrowed a little, but we expect more polling in the coming weeks. The overall impact will increase volatility in the election, which was tilted towards Republicans. The change is available to us with an insight into how the market is pricing the election. Bonds, small caps and banks have consistently performed. We expect the market to continue pricing in a significant risk premium.”
RBC Capital Markets:
“Along with the trajectory of interest rates and the duration of investments in data centers and AI, investors are beginning to assess the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on earnings expectations. to speculate on the outcome of the election, our analysis suggests that the multi-industry sector, on average, appears to be in a better position to benefit from the Trump administration, particularly and the possibility of lower corporate tax rates.”
BTIG:
“The Democratic convention will begin in Chicago in 29 days and we know how dynamic this period can be. Biden’s departure resets the presidential election and raises uncertainty near a term, but our attitude has not changed basically, we continue to see Trump as a little favorite.”
UBS:
“Our base case, which projects the S&P 500 at around 5,900 by the end of the year, is slightly above the current 5,505, in most political scenarios, barring a Democratic sweep leading to corporate taxes higher, or a situation where Trump imposes. high trade tariffs as proposed in his campaign speeches.
Raymond James:
“The path forward is uncertain because we are at an unprecedented moment in the modern era. Democratic delegates will choose the Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidates to face former President Trump. We are not reviewing our contracts elections this stage, as our base case. Vice President Harris will be the Democratic nominee and we currently see her with the same chances against Trump as Biden.”
TD Cowen:
“President Biden announced on Sunday that he will not seek re-election in November. Biden endorsed Kamala Harris for the nomination, although other Democrats prefer an open process. We consider this decision to reset the election, which which makes a Trump victory less certain, and this increases the risk for the financial and cryptocurrency sectors, although it may be positive for the real estate sector.”
Democrats’ chances increase after Biden’s departure
Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: ) show that Harris’s chances of being nominated as the Democratic candidate increased by 80% after Biden’s endorsement. The official nomination is scheduled to take place at the Democratic Party convention, August 19-22, with the possibility of a virtual nomination before that date.
Although Biden won nearly all of the delegates in the primary, those delegates are under no legal obligation to support Harris, keeping open the possibility of a contested convention, especially since only about 300 delegate votes are needed on a total of 4,700 considered for. the appointment, according to Goldman economists.
“Harris has significant advantages, including several high-profile endorsements received shortly after Biden’s announcement and access to campaign funds raised by the Biden-Harris duo,” they said.
Meanwhile, the odds in the forecast market for Democrats winning the White House have increased slightly but are still below 40%. “This slight increase probably reflects the fact that Harris trails Trump a little like Biden in recent media polls,” the economists said.
The chances of the Democrats winning both the House and the Senate were little changed, and the chances of a Republican victory decreased by about 4 percentage points to 41%, which is still the most likely scenario.
Economists also note that they do not expect significant changes to the Democrats’ tax and trade agenda if Harris is the nominee.
As for the Democratic vice presidential nominee, prediction markets favor Governors Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Roy Cooper (D-NC), Andy Beshear (D-KY), and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ ).
Looking ahead, the focus is expected to be on endorsements from Democratic leaders, potential rivals, Harris’ delegate count, the possibility of a “virtual nomination” in early August, and polls between Harris and Trump.
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