2024-06-11 19:21:45
Creator: Elchin Alioglu, Pattern
It’s not but clear when the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia will finish with a peace treaty. Speculations, analyses, interpretations and conjectures abound.
The US, European Union, France and Russia are additionally making an attempt to intervene within the course of, making the state of affairs worse as a substitute of simplifying it.
… There have been no diplomatic relations, business relations, financial or monetary transactions between Azerbaijan and Armenia for greater than 32 years. To be extra exact, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been like this for the reason that day they declared their independence.
Through the 30 years when 20 p.c of Azerbaijan’s territory was underneath occupation, Armenia was euphoric, and even statements like “Azeris and Armenians can not reside collectively as a result of genetic causes” grew to become the official ideology of Yerevan.
In fact, Baku didn’t create any relations with the enemy and didn’t intend to create them. The legislation of battle required full resistance to the invader and the usage of all means to liberate the land and finish the occupation.
The US and Russia, which wish to mediate within the peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan, emphasize that they’re appearing objectively, and that they think about it essential to concentrate on some factors of their diplomacy within the South Caucasus.
Nonetheless, after Russia’s army operations in Ukraine two years in the past, Moscow and Washington are in de facto hostile positions. The USA supplies Ukraine with a considerable amount of weapons and ammunition, supplies monetary help, and even permits the long-range missiles it sends to Kiev to hit targets in Russia’s border areas. If we additionally do not forget that the Western coalition led by the US has imposed 14,030 restrictions, i.e. extreme punitive sanctions towards Russia, the event of some commerce relations between Washington and Moscow may have a paradoxical impact.
However it isn’t so.
In April, the commerce turnover between Russia and the US elevated by 20% year-on-year and reached 332 million {dollars}.
In April, Russian exports elevated by 37% and reached 298 million {dollars}. Fertilizers stay the primary product imported by the US from Russia. Their provide elevated by 1.6 instances and reached 164 million {dollars}. Then comes platinum – shipments elevated 32 instances in comparison with final yr and amounted to $94.2 million. The highest 3 Russian exports to the US embody elements for turbojet engines – gross sales of which have tripled year-on-year.
On the one hand, United States officers emphasize that the sanctions imposed on Russia do not need the “anticipated impact”, and then again, they improve commerce turnover with Russia.
If that’s the case, the subregional technique of the states that decision themselves “geopolitical giants” and “nice powers”, particularly the techniques relating to the South Caucasus, is questionable.
The intentions of the US and Russia to intervene within the processes in our area, particularly within the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with their mediation mission, have a considerably doubtful impact.
As for the signing of the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the US, the European Union, France and Russia emphasize that they “fastidiously monitor the method” and “help optimistic initiatives” from 2022.
The primary query of the day is that this: can the ultimate peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia be signed by the tip of this yr?
The reply is tough, as a result of regardless of all of the initiatives and goodwill of the official Baku, the authorities of Armenia are busy slowing down the method and continuously inventing new synthetic obstacles.
If Baku is now busy making ready for the COP29 summit, the authorities in Yerevan are busy stopping the continual assaults towards the authorities by Archbishop Bagrat, that’s, Vazgen Galstanyan, who leads protests as a “image” of the joint exercise of the Armenian church, the Armenian diaspora within the US-France-Russia trio, and the “Karabag clan” in Armenia. .
The primary downside is said to the present laws of Armenia. The peace settlement mustn’t solely doc the tip of the Azerbaijan-Armenian battle, but additionally stop any recurrence of the battle on this format sooner or later.
The assertion “The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province is the territory of Armenia” within the State Declaration of Independence of Armenia and later within the preamble of the Structure of Armenia is a direct, clear and concrete territorial declare towards Azerbaijan.
The issue doesn’t finish there: Armenian laws accommodates territorial claims towards Turkey in addition to Azerbaijan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s name to Armenians to overlook the parable of “historic Armenia” and settle for the truth of Armenia reveals that the official Yerevan understands, at the very least partially, how harmful these claims are for Armenians.
In keeping with A. Mirzoyan, official statements of Baku relating to the territorial claims contained within the preamble of the Structure of Armenia are “interfering in Yerevan’s inner affairs”. Aside from that, Armenians additionally think about the clause in our Structure relating to Azerbaijan being the successor of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic established on Might 28, 1918 as harmful for them. They demand adjustments in our Structure. Since there isn’t a territorial declare towards any nation in our supreme legislation, it isn’t clear what and why needs to be modified.
If we briefly characterize the present state of affairs, the state of affairs is as follows:
1. Azerbaijan believes that the peace settlement will be signed solely after the required adjustments within the present laws of Armenia.
2. Armenia believes that the peace settlement needs to be signed first, and the method of implementing adjustments within the laws needs to be applied later.
Such a place of the Armenians, in fact, creates new and synthetic obstacles within the strategy of peace negotiations, but additionally reveals one other purpose of Yerevan: the authorities of Nikol Pashinyan try to attain the lively participation of the USA, the European Union or France as mediators within the negotiation course of.
How profitable such a mediation mission will be – we’ve seen it over the previous 30 years.