2024-09-26 13:08:38
What until now has been a low intensity conflict – which does not mean that it has no significant cost in lives – seems to be on the verge of becoming full scale war among the gang members Hezbollah e Israel.
As we saw yesterday in the same pages, the reasons for the war are different but the key strategy is that Israel cannot allow A terrorist group controls the opposite side of its northern borderlaunched 9,000 rockets and missiles in less than a year, killed dozens of its citizens, prevented the normal development of life in that part of the country and even forced more than 60,000 Israelis to live outside their homes and become refugees in their own countries. .
However, Israel has several options to solve these problems. We will analyze the different possibilities presented to the Israeli army.
Scenario one: from the air and with surprise blows
In recent weeks, the campaign of airstrikes has increased, which is not only a response to specific aggressions by Hezbollah but They are also a barriersome on a large scale: in a single stage they have bombed thousands of places in which Hezbollah has rockets to launch in Israel.
Also by air eliminating the relevant Hezbollah leaders, such as Ibrahim Muhammad Qabisi, who is considered by Israel to be the leader of the terrorists of the missile industry and the rocket force; or Ibrahim Akil, the head of terrorist operations.
In addition, he joined the air missions last week one of the most brilliant acts of intelligence in historythanks to which thousands of Hezbollah terrorists were injured or disfigured and, finally, did not fight.
However, although it is clear that in recent weeks Israel is dealing a very serious blow to Hezbollahit is doubtful that a campaign of this kind will be enough to make the Shiite group stop fulfilling the task that Iran has entrusted to it, in fact the task it was born: to harass Israel.
A total of twenty, but only up to the Litany
The second option, we can almost say that the first one is really on the table, is what we understand as a total war, even with a ground attack, but that the operations are limited to occupy the space between the border and the Litani Riverremove Hezbollah from the area and thus ensure that the place serves as a cushion that leaves northern Israel safe from many terrorist attacks, also read on the Metal Dome to manage the rest, which will necessarily be few and for which there will be little time to react.
In principle this would mean little money – both in the economy and in the lives of soldiers and civilians-, a more manageable flow of refugees and a situation that is easier to manage in the international community, although this is a relative priority for Israel and its leaders at this time.
However, this idea has a problem that a senior Israeli official explained to us in a very simple way: “In war the enemy still plays”. In other words, it is difficult for Hezbollah to simply accept such a position and a good part of the terrorist organization’s power will continue to operate beyond that limit, which will not be easy to defend.
In addition to the fact that the costly operation will have to be maintained – it does not seem that the return of control to the UN is a very logical idea after its failure since 2006 – forever a wide and predictable area.
Until the (almost) total destruction of Hezbollah
The third option is to try to do with Hezbollah what it is trying to do with another Iranian agent in the south of the country, Hamas: destroy it completely or, at least, reduced to a group of small real activity that does not represent an uncontrollable risk. To put it another way: do who are not able to carry out their own October 7.
From the point of view of Israel’s security this is probably the most logical option: the teaching of 7-O points in this direction and has changed, perhaps forever, the extent of what is understood to be acceptable to have on the other side of its border.
But of course, there are serious problems in making the program, first, obvious: It is very difficult and, predictably, will have a terrible price for the soldiers of Israel himself.
The second is the level of destruction that will be caused in a significant part of Lebanon, not only in the south, because Hezbollah’s presence has expanded throughout the country. Also, just like their Hamas counterparts, the terrorists have no qualms about using civilians as human shields, of course. casualties among the population will be very high.
Third, unlikely but not negligible, is the risk that the conflict could escalate. until it became a local war. It does not seem that Iran is in a position to participate directly in the war against Israel; the situation in Lebanon will be very complex and will have to look at the role played by other players in the region such as Türkiye or Syriathe truth is that you don’t seem like much joy either.
About half a year ago, an Israeli law enforcement expert explained to us that his country is not well prepared for this war that seems to be coming. The outcome of this conflict will depend on the extent to which the Israeli Defense Forces have managed to develop and prepare for a war that will be very different from that of Gaza and also. it is very different from the one fought at the same place in 2006.
Israeli intelligence gains in recent weeks They open the door to a hope, But the memory of that Second Lebanon War makes us very cautious about what might happen in this Third.
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