Under the most unfavorable scenario, a war in Ukraine could lead to starvation of up to 100 million people, says Matin Qaim, a German expert in the field of agrarian economics and a professor at the University of Bonn. About a third of all wheat sold on the world market, a fifth of corn and three-quarters of sunflower oil are grown in Russia and Ukraine, Kaim said in an interview published in the online version of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper on Saturday, March 12.
Both countries in a state of military conflict export large volumes of food to North Africa and the countries of the Near and Middle East, in particular Egypt, Libya and Lebanon, the expert stressed. In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its economic consequences could affect “even poorer countries where large numbers of people are already starving,” said the Bonn professor, pointing to Somalia, Chad, Madagascar and Bangladesh, among others.
The rise in fertilizer prices will also be a problem.
According to Matin Kaim, a significant increase in wheat prices will also be felt in Germany, although food prices will remain affordable for most of its inhabitants. “At the same time, in many regions of Africa and South Asia, almost all income is spent on food,” he added.
In addition, fertilizer prices are currently on the rise as Russia is an important supplier. “This is a serious problem, especially for the poorest countries in Africa. Unlike Europe, most farmers do not have the opportunity to spend money on rising prices for fertilizers, although this would make sense at high grain prices,” the German expert said. According to him, the refusal of fertilizers can reduce yields by 20-30 percent.
Berlin calls for anti-hunger program in poor countries
In turn, German Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development Svenja Schulze (Svenja Schulze) called for the speedy implementation of an international assistance program to counter the threat of famine caused by the loss of seeds and grain from Ukraine and Russia, which, as Schulze recalled, are “two of the most important breadbaskets of the world, supplying wheat and other foodstuffs to many developing countries.”
“If the war interferes with sowing or harvesting, blocks export routes and drives up prices, many poorer countries will be affected immediately,” the German minister told the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper. She warned that it would also threaten political stability in countries dependent on imports.
See also:
