A few years after publishing a report detailing a set of military, economic and geopolitical measures that the United States could adopt to “destabilize Russia”, the American think tank, the Rand Corporation, published a new report this month. Entitled “Avoiding a Long War: US Policy and the Trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict,” the document urges Washington to serve its interests by avoiding “a protracted conflict” even if it means considering an easing of sanctions against Russia.
In 2019, five years after the annexation of Crimea by Russia by referendum, the Rand Corporation urged its funder, the American government, to “supply lethal armaments to Ukraine” of “gradual way so as not to provoke a wider conflict”. The report, titled “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia,” proposed, in economic terms, to “decrease Russian state revenue by imposing new trade and financial sanctions”. In addition, the text referred to the “promotion of the liberalization of Belarus”, “the reduction of Russian influence in Central Asia” et “the expulsion of Russian forces from Transnistria”. Ideas quickly discarded, because of their low chances of success.
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Three years later, that is to say on February 24, 2022, Russia launched its military operation in Ukrainian territory. A few weeks later, in April, the Rand Corporation issued an update, claiming that “Russian state media and individuals sympathetic to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine have misinterpreted this research in recent weeks”. And to add: “We also encourage you to explore this helpful resource on Russia’s approach to propaganda.”
Almost a year later, the conflict is bogged down and escalation seems inevitable, especially with the decision, Wednesday, January 25, 2023, of several Western countries to deliver dozens of heavy tanks to Ukraine to face Russian forces. .
Read also: Delivery of heavy tanks to Ukraine: “extremely dangerous” decisions, according to Moscow, “inevitable” escalation?
Guarantee its “neutrality” and “reduce sanctions” against Russia
“The debate over the Russian-Ukrainian war in Washington is increasingly dominated by the question of how it might end. To inform this debate, this perspective identifies ways in which the war might evolve and how alternative trajectories would affect American interests.explains the new report from the Rand Corporation.
In this note, this think tank recommends “minimize the risks of major escalation” car “American interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict”. In the opinion of the authors of this report, “the costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States”.
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The Rand Corporation explains that the United States is in a position to take measures favoring “a negotiated end to the conflict”. The authors of this note have identified four main obstacles that could jeopardize the Russian-Ukrainian talks, in particular the prevailing pessimism about a diplomatic outcome.
Referring to this report, the United States can use four policy instruments to “mitigate”, among other things, this pessimism. It is “clarify its plans for future support to Ukraine”, “commit to the security of Ukraine”, “provide assurances regarding neutrality” from Washington and consider easing sanctions against Russia.