War in Ukraine: "rasputitsa", the weather phenomenon that can slow down armies

It’s a well-known weather phenomenon in Ukraine, which occurs twice a year and turns the ground into sticky mud. “La rasputista”, a Russian term meaning “the time of bad roads”, is a reality in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. It happens in the spring, when the temperatures are warmer and the snow melts – it is then the “great raspoutitsa” – but also in the fall when the heavy rains also result in several weeks of slush.

This weather phenomenon is not insignificant on the military level: Napoleon’s troops made the painful experience of it, delayed during their retreat from Russia at the end of 1812 to the point of being overtaken by the rigors of winter. On the Eastern front, during the Second World War, “if the large mechanized operations were almost completely stopped during the heavy autumn rains or during the spring thaws because of the famous ‘rasputitsa’, they resumed in winter, when the soils had hardened again”, explained the historian Laurent Henninger in the magazine National Defense in 2015.

The consequences of the “little rasputitsa” are therefore to be taken into account for the belligerents of the Ukrainian conflict, particularly at the logistical level, while the Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on the Russian army in the Donbass, which Russia wants to completely annex. “The rains cause the rivers to swell, so crossings will be more complicated”, reminds L’Express Dominique Trinquand, military expert and former head of the French mission to the UN. “The ‘raspoutitsa’ mechanically slows down the maneuvers of the units which are generally very heavy, while the conflict in Ukraine is characterized by heavy fighting on both sides, with mechanized armor”, explains to L’Express Michel Goya , a former colonel in the navy, now a war historian.

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From October, this “little rasputitsa” should therefore make Ukrainian territory impassable for tanks and armored vehicles. “The mud is very troublesome for heavy armored vehicles because it forces them to use the roads”, underlines Dominique Trinquand. “Mud considerably reduces all-terrain capabilities. For example, tanks will no longer be able to go through the fields otherwise they will sink”, also advances Michel Goya. It will therefore be “impossible” for them to take small roads. This configuration forced the invading forces to advance in columns on the main roads, more exposed to logistical problems or to attacks, in particular artillery fire.

The Ukrainian army further penalized?

The tactical problems will arise for the Russians as for the Ukrainians. But especially for the latter, believe Michel Goya like Dominique Trinquand, while the Ukrainian forces had made a dazzling breakthrough in the northeast of the country in early September, which allowed them to regain thousands of square kilometers. “The ‘little rasputitsa’ has an impact on the forces that want to progress, those who are on the offensive with armored vehicles, in this case the Ukrainians. Currently they are progressing in the north and south of the country so this risks limiting their offensive movements. On the other hand, it gives a small advantage for the Russians, who have been on the defensive for two weeks, “explains Dominique Trinquand.

Michel Goya does not say anything else: “From the moment you restrict maneuvering capacities, you make the task of defense easier. The ‘little rasputitsa’ will therefore rather penalize the Ukrainians because they are the ones who are leading for the moment offensive operation,” he said. Hence “the interest for them, just before this period of slowing down military operations, of putting maximum pressure on the Russians in order to have maximum gain”, continues Michel Goya.

Already last weekend, torrential rains made it difficult for troops in kyiv to face those in Moscow. “As it is difficult to advance because of the weather, we are targeting their armored vehicles, their ammunition depots and the groups of soldiers,” Ukrainian sergeant Roman Malyna told AFP on Saturday.

Michel Goya recalls, however, that some Russian soldiers, “isolated and poorly supplied”, should also suffer from the “little rasputitsa”, particularly those who are on the Dnieper bridgehead, in the Kherson region. “Everyday life will be difficult for them, both when the rains come and during freezing periods during the winter,” he recalls. Moreover, according to American Colonel John Spencer, interviewed in our columns, “winter will work in favor of Ukraine, that’s for sure. The first deliveries of equipment adapted to winter cold are also starting to arrive in Ukraine “.