The goal is ambitious, but the authorities of Ukraine they have fixed it: resume the exports of wheat and other agricultural products this week. That is the date communicated by kyiv for the so-called ‘agreement of the cereals‘. The Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, announced it in the last few hours, after a new Russian attack on the port of Odessa on Saturday endangered the important pact with Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The purpose is to alleviate crisis mundial which has already skyrocketed the number of people acutely food insecure or at high risk to 345 million.
Ukraine has explained that the transport of cereals from its country (which supplies the world, along with Russia, 30% of the wheat sold, 20% of the corn and 70% of the sunflower) will start from the port of Chornomorsk, a town about 30 kilometers to the southwest of Odessa. From this last city and from the nearby port of Pivdennyi de Yuzhne the following shipments will take place, if the war does not cause the failure of this agreement signed with the mediation of Turkey and the HIM. According to Ukrainian sources, the three ports can reach an export volume equivalent to 3 million tons per month.
But even so, some experts believe that the increases in food prices will only be mitigated if the agreement is maintained over time and the guerra in the Ukraine it regresses. Other analysts, on the other hand, see the pact as a possible first step towards ending the war in Ukraine, as retired Australian General Mick Ryan recently told ABC television. “The fact that these two countries are in dialogue is a good sign,” Ryan said.
For now, Moscow has recognized responsibility for Saturday’s attack, although it has also argued that it was aimed at military structures; the Russian military has also continued to carry out attacks in other parts of the country. However, Russia has also ruled out that these events will derail the agreement, according to the Moscow Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, during an appearance this weekend in Egypt. With the Egyptian authorities, “our cooperation has been discussed, more contacts have been agreed and a common understanding has been reached on the causes of the grain crisis,” Lavrov said, after his meeting with Sameh Shoukry, his Egyptian counterpart. .
Russia seduces in Africa
The problem, according to the economist Volodímyr Dubrovskiy, from the CASE study center in the Ukrainian capital, is that Russia’s objective is to feed the narrative of the North-South division, which Moscow endorses. Not surprisingly, Lavrov’s tour also includes trips to Uganda, Ethiopia and the Congo, all countries affected by the food crisis. In articles published in four African newspapers, Lavrov has already denied that Russia is responsible for the situation.
“Because of this, I think the agreement has a chance of going ahead. It interests Russia,” says Dubrovskiy. “The point is that I doubt that Ukraine will receive the income that corresponds to it from the wheat traded, and the cost of insurance (for the ships that transport the grain) will remain high,” adds the expert. In fact, while browsing the Black Sea remains risky, the prices of the policies offered by insurers will hardly drop, which makes it difficult for Ukraine to receive 12,000 million dollars obtained from these products in 2021.
The case of Egypt, the country to which Lavrov first traveled, is emblematic. Just last year 80% of the wheat that Cairo bought came from Russia and the Ukraine; That is why the Egyptian authorities have also become spokespersons for the common sentiment of neighboring nations that are in a similar situation, such as Tunisia and several countries of Africa sub-saharan What is at stake for these countries is not little: the risk is also that of popular uprisings (as happened in Sri Lanka) if they fail to contain the price of the basic basket, in which cereals are a primary food.