This month of Febuary begins with mildness – admittedly relative – and also significant humidity. What to expect next?
Mild Temperatures Persist across Western Europe-For Now
Despite a chilly air mass lurking to the east,Western Europe is enjoying a surprisingly mild start to february,and that trend is expected to continue for at least the next ten days.
- A westerly flow is bringing mild air from the Atlantic.
- Eastern Europe is experiencing cold temperatures, but they aren’t expected to reach the west anytime soon.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the exact track of weather systems this weekend.
- Eastern languedoc, the Rhône valley, and the Cévennes/Massif-central are expected to see the most precipitation.
Currently, a small anticyclonic bubble is forming towards the very high latitudes between Iceland and Scandinavia, but France and wider Western Europe remain under the influence of a westerly flow. These systems are bringing relatively mild air, as the flow originates over the Atlantic Ocean. While cold air is positioned from Germany to Eastern Europe, it doesn’t appear poised to move westward for the next ten days.
Today, Wednesday, snow is falling from 1200 to 1400 m depending on the time of day, also affecting Ardèche, as a disturbance moves from Gard to Lozère, notably over the Cévennes. Cumulative rainfall of 20 to 40 mm is expected in the Cévennes today, a typical amount given the saturated soil conditions.
Tomorrow Thursday, a calm morning will give way to increasing cloud cover. Light rain will develop in Aude in the afternoon, spreading to West Hérault. As the disturbance moves towards Gard and Lozère,the rain will become moderate. With mild temperatures, the snow line will rise to at least 1600/1700 m (rain on the Cévennes peaks). An additional 10 mm of rain is possible on the plains of eastern Languedoc and surrounding hills. friday will bring more cloudy periods from upper Languedoc to Lozère and near the Pyrenees,but clearings are expected elsewhere,potentially leading to pleasant weather. Very mild in the afternoon with often 15/16°C on our plains.
Weekend Forecast Remains Uncertain
Predictability is decreasing starting this weekend. The westerly flow will persist, but models diverge on the degree of low-pressure activity. The potential for rain has generally decreased for saturday, despite periods of cloudiness. sunday sees a slight increase in the risk of rain, but it’s not guaranteed. The most likely scenario is oscillating weather-sunny spells interspersed with cloudy periods. The precipitation potential will become clearer later. Temperatures will remain mild, with lows potentially dipping before rising to around +15°C in the afternoon if skies clear.
For next week, the continuation of the westerly flow is anticipated. there’s a significant chance of sharper undulations, leading to more organized disturbances and some snowfall at medium altitudes, accompanied by brief cooling periods. Though, “real cold” isn’t currently in the forecast, and sub-seasonal models suggest the rest of February will remain mild and humid. It’s worth keeping an eye on the situation, as cold air remains nearby.
