According to the Kremlin, US President Joe Biden and Russia’s head of state Vladimir Putin want to hold a video summit on Tuesday. The conversation is planned for the evening (Moscow time), Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov announced on Saturday. The duration of the exchange will be determined by the presidents themselves, said Peskov, according to Russian news agencies. The summit between the two presidents should help ease the crisis in Ukraine. Moscow criticizes the massive NATO presence in Ukraine, Washington warns of the Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border. Ukraine even fears a Russian invasion. At a meeting of foreign ministers in Stockholm, Anthony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov discussed the crisis.
This time the situation is serious. Russia is demanding a contractual agreement with the US, as Putin told the leading diplomats at the Russian Foreign Ministry on November 18. Putin said that the expansion of NATO to Poland and Romania had taken place, even though Russia had already voiced its concerns at the time. At that time, however, there was still a climate of partnership between the West and Russia. This is different today, which is why Russia must insist on clear contractual agreements with the West in order to avoid a military confrontation.
Andrey Sushentsov, dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University and program director of the Valdai Club and one of the leading Moscow policy experts of the younger generation, told the Berliner Zeitung: “After the Second World War, the Allies had a clear concept for Germany’s role in Europe evolves. The situation was very well prepared in cooperation between Russia and the West. After the end of the USSR, many new states emerged and there was no such system. ”Russia therefore called for a“ legal framework with a binding obligation for the West not to extend NATO any further to the Russian border ”.
Sushentsov explains the background to the current relationship between the former Cold War adversaries: In 2003 and 2004, Putin spoke to then-President George W. Bush about the relationship: “Bush said that the two nations were not enemies and that they USA would not attack Russia. He said that future relations should be such that Russia can do what it wants and that the US will do what it wants. ”However, this loose relationship proved unstable, according to Sushentsov. Therefore, we now need “a treaty that prevents NATO from standing on the Russian border”: “We have to start negotiations on the new NATO expansion plans.” So far, NATO has refused to concede such a “red line” to the Russians. For Sushentsov, negotiations still have to take place: “It is not a solution for NATO to say that we do not accept red lines from Russia. NATO must take up the grievances with Russia. Either this is done through negotiation and ultimately through a legal framework, or we run the risk of accidentally getting into a military confrontation.
Part of such a treaty must be a mechanism to prevent us from accidentally getting into a war. ”The basis for the Russians’ insistence is their concern“ about the new NATO doctrine, which says that NATO will also ensure its security outside of the Defend the territory of the member states ”. Therefore, “the deployment and activities of NATO and US troops in Ukraine are a big issue for us”. This is “as if the Russian fleet were to establish a presence near Great Britain”. Sushentsov: “We cannot accept this.”
The Russian expert sees the situation as critical: “We are approaching an open conflict. We’re sliding off to war. Russia doesn’t want this war. The USA underestimates how seriously Russia takes the situation. ”For Russia,“ there is no political gain in starting a war ”:“ If we are not provoked, we will not do anything militarily. Russia is not planning an attack on the Donbass. ”So far, few replies have been received from the USA. Sushentsov: “What we are saying to the USA is: Please talk to us, we are in a stressful situation here. We are on the brink of a great war. ”Moscow is currently unable to give in. Addressing the Ukraine address, Sushentsov says: “If you start a war, we will end it.”
The central problem from the Russian point of view is a military-political power vacuum in Europe. Sushentsov: “European security depends on two poles: on the one hand on the USA and NATO, on the other hand on Russia. Germany and France do not play a major role in the European security structure, since the USA and NATO are in the lead. “
In contrast, “Turkey has developed as a new ambitious power with a lot of military capacity”. Turkey wants to regain its status as a military power and is an independent actor. Ankara is an interesting partner for Sushentsov: “We had 13 wars with Turkey and we settled with them 13 times. We can deal with Turkey. “
The problem for Germany is the loss of military importance. Because of the condition of the Bundeswehr, Germany is no longer an important player behind closed doors – unlike Turkey, which has kept its armed forces in combat mode in war missions for years, trained and improved. Germany, on the other hand, could “only say to Ukraine: Please stop!”, Said Sushentsov. Germany has no way of enforcing something.
Russia has long pointed out the problem of this vacuum, says Sushentsov: “At the moment we do not have a common security system in which Russia could participate. Ukraine has decided to join NATO, and the US has promised security. This represents an immediate threat to Russia. ”Russia constantly makes proposals“ for a legal framework that can prevent wars ”. These proposals should now come on the table at the Biden summit with Putin.