Warriors vs. Mavericks: 2025 NBA Christmas Day Prediction & Odds

by liam.oconnor - Sports Editor

San Francisco, December 25, 2025 – The Golden State Warriors will host the Dallas Mavericks in a marquee matchup on the NBA’s Christmas Day schedule, with Golden State favored by 8.5 points.

Warriors and Mavericks Clash on Christmas

Both teams are looking to make a statement as they navigate the Western Conference standings.

  • Dallas enters the game with a record of 12-19, currently 11th in the Western Conference.
  • Golden State is 15-15, holding the eighth seed in the West.
  • Kyrie Irving remains sidelined for the Mavericks due to a knee injury.
  • the SportsLine Projection Model predicts the total score will stay Under 229.5 points.

Tipoff from the Chase Center is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. The Warriors currently have a money line of -341, meaning a $341 bet woudl win $100. The Mavericks are at +271, offering a potential $271 return on a $100 wager.

What’s the Prediction on the Total Score?

Will the game stay Under the total points? The SportsLine Projection Model simulates each NBA game 10,000 times and suggests betting Under the total of 229.5 points. The model projects a combined score of 227, with the Under hitting over 50% of the time.

The model has a strong recent record, going 30-14 on its top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season, and has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors. It has also identified an against-the-spread pick that is projected to hit in nearly 60% of simulations.

Warriors vs. Mavericks spread:    

Warriors -8.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Warriors vs. Mavericks over/under:    

229.5 points

Warriors vs. Mavericks money line:    

Warriors -341, Mavericks +271

Warriors vs. Mavericks picks:    

See picks at SportsLine

Warriors vs. Mavericks streaming:

Fubo (Try for free) 

For fans looking to place a bet,new users can take advantage of promotional offers. DraftKings is offering $200 in bonus bets with a $5+ bet win, while bet365 is providing $150 in bonus bets after a $5 wager.

The Mavericks will be without Kyrie Irving (knee), while Klay Thompson (probable, knee) and PJ Washington (questionable, foot) are day-to-day for the Warriors.

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