2024-07-14 18:25:44
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
The United States and France, which hastened Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty with Armenia, have prepared a new insidious scenario against our country. The goal is to raise numerous lawsuits against Azerbaijan immediately after the signing of the peace agreement, to raise the issue of “guaranteeing the return of Armenians from Karabakh” to the agenda.
The office of the international research center “MPG/Gallup International Association” in Armenia conducted a new survey in the country. Azerbaijan demands changes to the Constitution of Armenia, where the reference to the declaration “On State Independence” containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan is reflected in the preamble.
If the necessary, logical and inevitable changes are not made, the peace agreement will be just a framework agreement, and Armenia will show practically the same attitude to the terms of the peace agreement as it will not comply with any of the clauses (!) of the tripartite statement signed on November 10, 2020.
As long as the constitution of the territorial claims against our country is legitimized against international law and is an act of aggression in its supreme law, it is not an exception for revanchists to become active in Armenia and even to voice demands for the start of new military operations.
If we take into account that the Armenian leadership has chosen the strategy of quickly arming the remnants of the army, and that France and India have started supplying Yerevan with assault weapons and military equipment, and if we also remember that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to build a geopolitical barrier between the West and Russia and Iran, the hasty, “raw” signing of the peace agreement is a mistake for Azerbaijan. does not meet their interests.
“Gallup” Armenia office published a report on the opinion poll conducted in the country. According to the head of the office, Aram Navasardyan, 80.3 percent of those who participated in the survey believed that the Constitution of Armenia should remain unchanged, 11.7 percent believed that some provisions and clauses of the supreme law need to be changed, and 3.3 percent believed that the country needs a new Constitution.
According to A. Navasardyan, “the figures were different until the official Baku statement about the need for changes in the Armenian Constitution and the elimination of territorial claims against Azerbaijan: “So, in January of this year, 38.1 percent of respondents said they wanted the Armenian Constitution to remain unchanged. 34.2 percent said that changes are needed. 13.4 percent of those polled were sure that Armenia needs a new Constitution.”
Without changes in the Constitution of Armenia, a peace treaty is impossible. In the declaration “On the State Independence of Armenia” adopted on August 23, 1990, the statement of the Supreme Soviet of Armenia “Karabakh is a territory united to Armenia” is repeated in the preamble of the Armenian Constitution.
That is, the official Yerevan is still constitutionally based on the decision adopted by the Supreme Soviet of Armenia on December 1, 1989. However, the Armenian SSR and especially the separatist-terrorist regime in Khankendi have gone down in history.
In this way, the opinion of 80.3 percent of Armenians who were asked in the survey conducted by “Gallup” Armenia service appears to support Armenia’s territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
The situation is clear: illusions, thoughts based on false history and myths, revanchism, revenge and hope for a “new, successful war” are not lacking in Armenian society.
There is one more interesting point. About 60 percent of the respondents who took part in the survey conducted by the Armenia office of “Gallup” considered the process of demarcation and delimitation of the conventional state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia “unacceptable”. 37 percent of the respondents said that they support the delimitation of the conventional state border.
The ruling elite of Armenia is, to put it mildly, ambiguous.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continuously declares that Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity, border inviolability and sovereignty of Azerbaijan. This, of course, axiomatically includes the fact that Karabakh and our 4 villages currently occupied by Armenia are the territory of Azerbaijan.
Thus, the survey conducted by “Gallup” shows that the declarations and statements of the official Yerevan about peace are false, the Armenian society is not ready for peace, on the contrary, the spirit of revanchism is strong.
In the meantime, let’s remind that “Freedom House” and other international NGOs published a report accusing Azerbaijan of “ethnic cleansing”, “crimes against humanity” and “war crimes”. “Why are there no Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh?” A special report was published. The document states that, apart from this organization, other international NGOs participated in the preparation of the report: “Open Society Foundations”, “International Partnership for Human Rights”, Ukrainian NGO that prepared the questions. “Truth Hounds”, “Democracy Development Foundation”, “Helsinki Citizens Assembly”, “Protection of Rights without Borders” NGO, “Development of Law and “Law Development and Protections Foundation”.
There is no doubt that the report was prepared under the direct instructions and order of the US State Department: this is not an assumption, but a conclusion reached as a result of the analysis of Washington’s policy and position regarding the South Caucasus region in recent months.
It is also assumed that the process is under the direct control of James O’Brien, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. It is enough to recall O’Brien’s speech at the hearings in Congress in November 2023 and what he said in an interview with the Armenia service of “Azadlig” radio in June of this year.
The said report was later prepared as one of the sources to be used against Azerbaijan in various courts, international organizations and legislative bodies.
James O’Brien’s statements, the report we are talking about and the results of the survey conducted by the Armenia office of “Gallup” show that even if a peace treaty is signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the pressure of the United States and France against our country will not subside. On the contrary, attempts at pressing and direct pressure will increase.
One of the points that indicate that the situation is exactly like this is the position of the United States and France, and then, of course, Armenia, regarding the structure that has been thrown into the dustbin of history called the Minsk Group of the OSCE.
Official Baku suggested to Yerevan that since the Karabakh issue no longer exists, Azerbaijan and Armenia should apply to the OSCE and ask for the cancellation of the Minsk Group. The Minsk Group was created not for the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, but for the settlement of the Karabakh problem through peaceful negotiations. There is no reason for the existence of the OSCE Minsk Group because Azerbaijan has solved the problem of the Karabakh conflict.
The Armenian leadership has not yet responded to the logical and simple proposal. Perhaps he would like to answer, but his “geopolitical sponsors” the United States and France want such an answer to remain silent.
The reason is simple: along with Yerevan, Washington and Paris do not agree that the completely artificial issue called “Karabakh problem” should be removed from the agenda of regional politics, saying “there is a problem, it needs to be solved”.
The goal of Washington, which hastened Azerbaijan to conclude a peace treaty without making the necessary changes to the Armenian Constitution, and tried to convince Baku with its “peace agenda”, is to start a new process after the signing of the peace treaty.
The goal of US President Joe Biden’s democratic administration could be seen from the report prepared by “Freedom House” and a number of NGOs.
Let’s take a look at just one quote from the report: “A combined analysis of the actions and rhetoric of the Azerbaijani authorities and what happened to the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh provides logical grounds for concluding that their forced migration from Karabakh was deliberate. The evidence points to the existence of a coordinated, long-term plan aimed at clearing Nagorno-Karabakh of its ethnic Armenian population. Accordingly, the documented actions of Azerbaijan meet the criteria of ethnic cleansing understood in the context of the former Yugoslav conflict: extrajudicial executions, torture, arbitrary arrests and detentions, restriction of access to food and life-saving medicines, forced removal and deportation of civilians. carried out through deliberate military attacks or threats of attack on the civilian population and civilian areas and the destruction of property.The fact-finding mission found that these actions, as well as the other acts described in this summary, are in violation of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, including Article 7 of that Statute ( crimes against humanity) and Articles 8 (war crimes), as well as the concept of deportation or forcible transfer of population”.
Taking into account the fact that James O’Brien took an active part in the preparation of lawsuits brought against Serbia at the international level due to military operations and wars in the former Yugoslavia, and that he is a professional and high-level lawyer, we can assume that the West is preparing a new “game” against Azerbaijan.
The signs of official Washington’s tactics regarding our region could be understood from the content of the report entitled “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh”, which James O’Brien presented at the hearing organized by the foreign relations committee of the US House of Representatives on November 15 of last year.
It should be noted that the main parts of the mentioned document are “Comprehensive assistance to the Armenians of Karabakh and their return”, “Helping Armenia” and “Achieving peace”.
That is, for Washington, the main issue is not the achievement of peace, but the use of Karabakh Armenians as a tool.
This shows the priorities behind the statements of the Biden administration to establish peace and stability in our region.