2023-05-02 09:31:47
The autonomous survey of the Community of Madrid four weeks before the elections provides us with four very revealing data. The first that the absolute majority of the PP is already a fact. Two years after the early elections in the Community of May 2021, Ayuso would go from 44.8% to 48.1% of the votes, which would place her at 68 seats. The absolute majority, with about 1.8 million votes.
The second is that this absolute majority of the PP could be more forceful at the cost of turning Podemos-IU into an extra-parliamentary force. This formation that Pablo Iglesias led in his day is only one tenth of a point away from being excluded from the Madrid Assembly. The readjustment in the distribution of seats would place the PP at 71 parliamentarians. While Más Madrid would rise to 26, the PSOE to 25 and Vox to 13.
The Minister of Labor, unemployed European champion, recently stated in La Sexta that she would vote for the Más Madrid brand and would no longer do so for Podemos-Izquierda Unida. The communist shows the way.
In third place, the PSOE continues to be relegated to the third force in the region, being surpassed by the party to its left, Más Madrid. The European social democrats have two formulas to face their stages of government: the difficult one, which is to reaffirm their moderation and manage, in the case of Portugal, or the easy one, to be carried away by left-wing populism, in the case of Spain. With Sánchez, the socialists have renounced acting as a social democratic party and, by becoming political, they have whitewashed the extreme left. Until 2004, the socialists acted as social democrats, as Felipe González defended in 1979: “You have to be socialists before being Marxists.”
On the other hand, the leadership of the Social Democrats can only successfully compete with the right and keep the representation of the extreme left to a minimum, if they have a charismatic person at the helm, who convinces their potential voters instead of buying votes with promises. and you pay Felipe González’s PSOE achieved Spanish adherence to the Atlantic Alliance, in a state of opinion that was largely contrary to NATO. But he convinced the Spanish. It was his responsibility as a statesman. Until the Socialist Party recovers a State figure at the head of the organization, there will be no more electoral victories.
The PSOE has a role to play in our democracy, alternating periodically with the PP, since both are the pillars of the democratic regime of 1978. But when the PSOE joins the anti-constitutionalist populists, it not only endangers democracy, but also its very existence as a centered political force. Letting the Popular Party invade the terrain of moderation that a pruned PSOE has abandoned.
The fourth reading of the survey presented is the situation of Vox. That it stagnates and loses its secondary function in the event that the PP does not obtain an absolute majority on its own. The electorate of the right will not risk it and will vote safely, prioritizing the useful vote for the Popular Party. 20.9 percent of voters for Rocío Monasterio in 2021 will now go to Ayuso. There are 69,681 voters. Vox follows in the footsteps of Ciudadanos and begins to transfer the vote to the popular. In fact, in the last CIS the electorate was x-rayed by asking the following question: «When talking about politics, the expressions left and right are normally used. Situating ourselves on a scale that goes from 1 to 10, in which 1 means “the furthest to the left” and 10 “the furthest to the right”, in which box would it be placed?». Well, the response of the popular voter was 7.05 and that of the Vox electorate, 7.40 points. Only 22.4% of Vox voters were on the “extreme right”, while the remaining 77.6 percent held ideological positions that coincided with those of the Popular Party.
#fall