2023-08-06 06:12:46
A delegation from ECOWAS left Niamey on Thursday August 3 without having visibly managed to open a constructive dialogue with the men who overthrew (and still hold prisoner) President Bazoum and some of his relatives since July 26.
This delegation had come to Niamey preceded by multiple international condemnations and heavy threats of sanctions and military intervention made against the putschists to make them bend. His arrival in Niamey nevertheless coincided with an amicable conciliation offer from Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, to no avail. The choice of ECOWAS to brandish threats of sanctions and military action from the hours following the coup did not make the putschists shudder, quite the contrary.
Shortly after the departure of the ECOWAS delegation, the putschist officers denounced the military agreements linking Niger to France, as if to highlight the international geopolitical dimension of a crisis whose resolution was entrusted to regional actors. Almost simultaneously, a letter attributed to President Bazoum was sent to the United States via the Washington Post requesting the restoration of constitutional order.
In the space of a few hours, the unthinkable – or what looked like a game of lying poker with the aim of conducting the negotiations from a position of strength – gradually took shape: the possibility of a war between Niger and an ECOWAS – of which France and the United States have declared to support all the decisions -, a war in which Mali and Burkina Faso have also promised to participate, both led by military juntas, in support of Niger.
One more war in the Sahel will have only one winner: the jihadists
This scenario is catastrophic, even though we do not know exactly the nature of the planned intervention (targeted or more extensive). The wars in the Sahel are not conventional; they dramatically affect populations whose lives are already very vulnerable; they involve the mobilization of myriads of irregular armed actors (rebels, militias, traffickers) with complex cross-border connections; they trigger cascading effects that no one can claim to control. The risk for Niger is not only to be exposed to external military intervention but also to sink into civil war given the current polarization of political camps which would only inflame external intervention. One more war in the Sahel will have only one winner: the jihadist movements which for years have been building their territorial expansion on the bankruptcy of states.
This scenario is avoidable, as long as we abandon fixed martial postures and take the trouble to understand the reasons why the Nigerien putschists succeeded in a few days in rallying behind them not only important fringes of the army but also of civil society or certain trade unions.
This rallying took place even though the putschists, from their first speech, justified their seizure of power by reasons essentially specific to the security field, without expressing a vision for Niger other than by keywords of convenience and deprived of substance: security, governance, education, etc.
The state of public opinion in Niger cannot legitimize a seizure of power by arms
Strengthened by the support obtained in the country, the putschists seem determined not to concede anything. The support from which they benefit is the product of at least three combined factors: an epidermal nationalist reflex in the face of bellicose messages emitted from outside, a strong dose of sovereignist propaganda previously experienced in neighboring Mali and Burkina, but also and above all a relief to see the fall of a business power system characteristic of successive mandates since the National Conference of 1991, accentuated under the presidency of Mahamadou Issoufou and not sufficiently reformed by his successor Mohamed Bazoum. This state of opinion cannot legitimize a seizure of power by arms. It nevertheless generates a situation of fait accompli to which it would be absurd and disastrous to respond with war, which will have no other effect than to strengthen popular support for the putschists and, consequently, their seizure of power.
The latter is by definition unconstitutional but it does not bring down an exemplary democracy. If a peaceful and truly transformative way out of this crisis exists, which should be exploited, it must be sought in the flattening of the political economy which has deepened social divisions and structural inequalities in recent years. years and fueled the discontent of urban youth. If the putschists are sincere in their desire for reform, then they have no reason to refuse this ambitious and uncertain project. They must agree to give way to an inter-Nigerien dialogue. For this project to have a chance of succeeding and for an end to the logic of predatory governance and the pendular capture of power, the contribution of all political and social forces is required. Faced with the current stalemate, de-escalation and a way out of the crisis from above require an agreement allowing the release of President Bazoum accompanied by a resolute choice by the national political forces to open up to compromises within an institutional framework that cleans up future electoral contests.
Signatories:
Seidik Abba Nigerian journalist and writer
Elodie Apard IRD researcher
Niagale Bagayoko ASSN
Dougoukolo Ba Konaré CARICT affiliate researcher
Edoardo Baldaro Researcher, ULB
Laurent Bigot consultant and former diplomat
Marc-André Boisvert researcher FrancoPaix Center
Bruno Charbonneau Director of the FrancoPaix Center
Amadou Idrissa Bokoye Environment Canada
Florence Boyer IRD researcher
Anne Calvès Professor, University of Montreal
Abdou Khadir Cisse journalist
Mamoudou Gazibo Professor, University of Montreal
Yvan Guichaoua teacher-researcher, University of Kent
Boubacar Haidara researcher, BICC
Alessio Iocchi researcher, University of Naples l’Orientale
Issiaka Mandé Professor, UQAM
Richard Marcoux Professor, Laval University
Charles Moumouni Professor, Laval University
Nathalie Prevost journalist
Luca Raineri Researcher, Sant’Anna University of Pisa
Félicien Roquet geographer, AFD
Tatiana Smirnova researcher, CIDIS, University of Sherbrooke
Francesco Strazzari Professor, Sant’Anna University of Pisa
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