Weather: Aemet warns of an episode of exceptionally high temperatures, with up to 38° in the south of the Peninsula | Spain

2023-09-27 11:29:59

More than a summer of San Miguel, this year Spain will experience a real summer, with at least 10 days of anomalous and unusually high temperatures for the season, warns the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). The veranillo, which began last weekend, “is going to gain strength and in the coming days will become a warm episode, with exceptionally high values,” says its spokesperson, Rubén del Campo. Already on Tuesday the 34° in points of the Guadalquivir valley such as Andújar (Jaén) or Córdoba, and Guadiana, like Badajoz. “In most of the interior of the peninsula, maximum temperatures were between 4° and 7° above normal,” says Del Campo. But this is nothing with what is expected from Thursday, when this anomaly will escalate to between 10° and 15° above and the thermometers will read 38° and 39° in the south of the Peninsula to welcome October with a weather of mid-August. “There is no precedent, at least since 1950, for a warm episode so late and with the intensity predicted. “They are midsummer values” in autumn, says Aemet.

The causes, explains Del Campo, are multiple. On the one hand, there is “the atmospheric stability caused by high pressures, which favors clear skies,” with which an almost total absence of precipitation is expected. In addition, the sun “shines brightly and heats the surface a lot and there is no air mixing because the winds are weak.” Within these high pressures, specifically a stationary anticyclone, “air descents from high levels below the troposphere” occur, a phenomenon called subsidence, whereby the air is compressed and heated.

Between September 29 and October 4, six records for warm days could be broken consecutively. There is no precedent, at least since 1950, for such a late warm episode with the intensity predicted for the next few days. pic.twitter.com/4VxVWpPNr6

— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) September 26, 2023

But the main actor is missing. All this happens “within an air mass coming from subtropical latitudes and which is extraordinarily warm for the date“, so much so that at least between 1991 and 2020 “no air mass as warm as the one predicted has flown over Spain.” From September 28 to October 4, Spain may be breaking records for warm days one after the other, that is, each day will be the warmest compared to the same days in all Septembers and Octobers since at least 1995. If this happens, there will be six consecutive warm records and the country will begin October with 26 of them. versus none cold. In an undisturbed climate, there should be five warm and five cold records a year. In 2022, the warmest year in Spain since records began, there were up to 35 warm records and only two cold ones. The effect of global warming is, therefore, very palpable.

At the moment, Aemet does not put a date at the end of the episode. With the forecasts currently available, “it seems that temperatures would begin to drop on Wednesday the 4th or Thursday the 5th, but it is not yet possible to specify the end of this episode of unusual heat, which will be extensive and long-lasting,” warns the spokesperson for the agency.

The worst days will be between Friday, September 29 and Monday, October 2, with “highs between 32° and 34° in expanding areas of the peninsular interior.” In the Guadalquivir, temperatures could even exceed 36° to 38°. No one will be spared from the heat, not even the coolest areas of the country, since in the north of Galicia and in the Cantabrian area the temperatures “will also be clearly higher than usual, but in a less intense and persistent way.” In the Canary Islands, the heat will arrive from the weekend, with “maximum temperatures that could be around 34° or 36° in the eastern islands,” details Del Campo.

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Can records be broken? Yes, what’s more, the absolute heat record for the month of October may fall. In the National Climatological Data Bank, the maximum temperature in peninsular Spain appears to be 37.5° recorded in Marbella (Málaga) on October 22, 2014, followed by 37.4° measured in Andújar, on October 12, 2004. “ It cannot be ruled out that these values ​​could be exceeded at the beginning of October,” admits Del Campo. And it will be hot during the day, but also at night: the minimums “will also be abnormally high, but less clearly.” 18°-20° are expected on the Mediterranean coast and in the southwest quadrant of the peninsula. In the Canary Islands, from 22° to 24° and even more in the south of Gran Canaria.

This is the day by day prediction

This Wednesday there will be “a significant rise in temperatures on the Cantabrian coast and less pronounced in other parts of the northern half.” It will already exceed 30° in the eastern Cantabrian Sea, the Ebro depression, the central area of ​​Castilla y León and a good part of the center and south of the peninsula, with 34° or more in points of the Guadalquivir. “Daytime temperatures will be between 5° and 10° above normal in much of the territory,” says the expert.

On Thursday, temperatures will again be between 5° and 10° above average in much of the country and will also “rise slightly in the southern half,” while in the rest they will remain unchanged. The skies “will be slightly cloudy in general and it could only rain lightly in the western end of Galicia.” Temperatures will exceed 30° in the Cantabrian Sea – where the risk of fires will be very high – and also in the northeast, center and south of the Peninsula. “In fact, in a large part of Extremadura, in the south of Castilla-La Mancha and in a good part of Andalusia, temperatures will exceed 32° to 34°. In the Guadalquivir it could reach 36°,” the Aemet spokesperson completes the forecast.

On Friday and Saturday “there will likely be a general rebound in temperatures.” “The maximums will again be between 5° and 10° above normal and on Saturday even between 10° and 15° in points of the northern half and the southeast,” emphasizes the meteorologist. On Friday, San Miguel day, between 36° and 38° could already be reached in Badajoz, Córdoba and Seville. 30° will be exceeded “generally in the interior of the peninsula.”

Saturday will be “an extremely warm day”, with also high minimums: it will not drop below 18° to 20° in the Mediterranean and parts of Extremadura and Andalusia. In the central hours of the day “30° will once again be exceeded across the board and even 32° in large areas, such as the interior of the Cantabrian communities, Castilla y León and the center. It will be around 34° in points of the Ebro, in a good part of Extremadura and the east of Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia, with between 36° and 38° in the Guadiana and the Guadalquivir. “These are peaks typical of the second half of August in the middle of summer,” emphasizes the expert.

On Sunday it is “likely that there will be a notable drop in temperatures on the Cantabrian coast, but they will rise in the east of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands and will remain without major changes in the rest.” Values ​​between 36° and 38° may be reached in points of the Guadiana and Guadalquivir. The situation will continue at least until Wednesday, when “it is possible that a thermal decline will begin.”

In the Canary Islands, this Wednesday and Thursday there will be trade winds with clouds in the north of the most important islands but, starting on Friday, they will also suffer the effects of the heat. Temperatures will be high for the season starting on Saturday and for at least the first half of next week, with more than 34° in the south of Gran Canaria and Lanzarote and Fuerteventura. Also, there could be haze.