Weather: The peak of the anomalous heat episode begins, which will last until Monday with Sunday as the worst day | Spain

2023-09-29 16:35:18

The episode of unusually high temperatures for the time of year began on Thursday with 35° or more in some 25 stations in the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) network, all in Andalusia and Extremadura, but the highest temperatures were suffered by , as almost always, in the Guadalquivir valley, where 37° were touched at points in Seville and Montoro (Córdoba). This Friday, the thermometers will continue their climb and “the peak phase” of the episode will begin, which will last until Monday, with Sunday as the worst day. During these four days, “32° to 34° will be exceeded in a good part of the interior of the peninsula and on Monday also on the Cantabrian coast, from 34° to 36° in the Ebro depression and even from 36° to 38° in the Guadalquivir Valley.”

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The cause of this phenomenon is that since last weekend Spain has been “under the influence of high pressures”, specifically a stationary anticyclone on the surface and a ridge at altitude, which “confer great stability to the atmosphere, favoring that the sun heats strongly and that heat does not dissipate because the winds blow weakly.” Within these high pressures there is “a downward movement of air from high and medium levels to lower levels that causes the air to be compressed and heated even more.” This situation, by persisting for several days, causes a gradual and progressive rise in temperatures.

But, starting this Friday, the main actor will make an appearance: a mass of warm air of extraordinary dimensions, coming from low latitudes and driven by a small area of ​​low pressure located to the west of the Canary Islands and the Peninsula. Faced with the deniers who downplay these temperatures by claiming that Many years there is a San Miguel summer or last burst of heat around these dates.Del Campo emphasizes that “this is a very unusual episode for this time of year and exceptionally high values ​​will be reached.” It is likely that “numerous heat records could be broken for October.” At least until Tuesday, thermometers in almost all of Spain will read 5° to 10° higher and, during the weekend and Monday, between 10 and 15°, especially in the northern half.

These are values ​​typical of August and, although “it is not an adverse situation like summer heat waves when the heat is much more extreme,” this warm episode “will increase the risk of fires in a good part of Spain and will be very high or extreme in the Cantabrian Sea”. Furthermore, given that the situation causes an almost total absence of rain, it will worsen the long-lasting metrological drought that the country entered in December.

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This is the day by day prediction

This Friday a new thermal rebound is expected and 30° will already be exceeded in large areas of the interior and 34°, again, in the southwest of the peninsula and more than 36° in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys. Aemet has activated the yellow warning, the minimum on a scale of three, in Córdoba, Jaén and Seville.

On Saturday “temperatures will continue to rise, except in Andalusia.” The rise “will be more notable in the Cantabrian Sea and could even exceed 32° in points within these communities, in a good part of Castilla y León and in the Ebro basin.” In the southern half, more than 34° across the board and even 37° in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana after an early morning in which, in these valleys and on the shores of the Mediterranean, it will not have dropped from 18° to 20°.

No “summer” (which doesn’t even exist): what we have is an increasingly longer summer.

Since the 1960s, summer has lengthened by around 30-40 days in almost the entire country. We’re talking about ONE more MONTH of summer in just 50 years.

(https://t.co/hCz9HVKHtI) pic.twitter.com/7U44RUPapF

— Roberto Granda (@EnMet3) September 29, 2023

On Sunday, already October 1, “another mild morning” is expected, a little more than those of Saturday and the maximums “will not vary too much or will rise slightly.” It will be “the hottest day of the episode” and records could be broken, for example, in cities like Seville, Córdoba and Badajoz, which could reach 38°, and in Cáceres, Murcia, Ourense, Zaragoza and Lleida, where it will be between 33° and 35°. In Pamplona and Bilbao between 30° and 32° are expected, in Almería and Valencia between 31° and 33°, while the “coolest” cities will be Santander and San Sebastián where, even so, it will be between 25° and 27°. In the Canary Islands it will also be very hot over the weekend, “with a notable thermal rise on Saturday and temperatures above 34° in the south of Tenerife and Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura.”

On Monday there will be “a temperature drop in Galicia and in the Mediterranean area”, but temperatures will rise a lot in the eastern Cantabrian Sea, while “in the rest of the country there will be no changes.” Therefore, temperatures “will be similar in general to those on Sunday, except 2°-3° lower in the Mediterranean and Galicia and “clearly higher in cities like Bilbao, which could even exceed 35°” and in Santander and San Sebastián, which could be around 32°.

At the moment, Aemet still does not set a date for the end of this episode. “As of Tuesday, there is more uncertainty about the evolution of the episode,” confesses the meteorologist. It will probably cool in the northern half, especially in the Cantabrian Sea, where “the drop could be 8° or 10° in one day.” However, “it does not seem that there will be significant changes in the rest.” As of today, it seems that starting Wednesday and in the following days there may be “rise and fall in temperatures depending on the areas and the days,” but “it is most likely that unusually high temperatures will continue in much of the region.” Peninsula for most of the week.” In the Canary Islands, the heat will also be unusual next week, with 32° to 34° in large areas and haze.