Earth lost nearly 11.3-trillion tonnes of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets between 1979 and 2023, according to a major scientific assessment published in Scientific Data. Researchers found that ocean-driven melting of speeding outlet glaciers, rather than warm air, drives the vast majority of this polar mass loss.
Tracking Five Decades of Polar Ice Loss From Space
A massive international collaboration of polar scientists, headed by the European Space Agency, has assembled the longest satellite record of polar ice loss ever produced. By comparing and combining 42 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of ice flow, volume, and gravitational attraction over time, the research team charted ice volumes in Antarctica back to 1979 and in Greenland back to 1972.
The findings reveal that the two major ice sheets lost a combined 11.3 trillion tons of ice between 1979 and 2023. Lead study author Ines Otosaka, an ice scientist at Northumbria University and assistant professor who also works at the U.K. Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring, explained the ambition behind the dataset.
Photo: timeslive.co.za
What we really wanted to do is to produce a very comprehensive and robust estimate. By combining all of those different independent estimates, we can then come up with one dataset and assessment of how the ice sheets have evolved over the past five decades.
Ines Otosaka, ice scientist at Northumbria University
All of that melted ice transformed into nearly 11.3 quadrillion liters of water, pushing global average sea levels up by about 3.1 centimeters—or roughly 1.2 inches—since 1979. While a few centimeters might sound small, Otosaka noted that for every single centimeter of sea level rise, another two to three million people face coastal flooding at least once a year.
Speeding Glaciers and Ocean Waters Drive the Melting
The mechanism behind the staggering ice loss surprised researchers. While ice sheets gain mass through snowfall accumulation, they lose mass through surface melting driven by atmospheric temperatures and outflow driven by ocean temperatures. The study established that 84 percent of the combined ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica stemmed from glaciers pouring more ice into the ocean, while just 16 percent resulted from surface melting.
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Here we really found that the main cause of ice loss from the ice sheets is the latter, where you have glaciers that are flowing faster into the ocean.
Photo: Nature
Ines Otosaka, lead author and assistant professor at Northumbria University
Study co-author Eric Rignot, an ice scientist at the University of California, Irvine, issued a stark warning about the trajectory of the polar regions.
Rignot said that the ice sheets are melting away fast, and that the melting of the polar regions is causing sea levels to rise worldwide, which will exacerbate the vulnerability of coastal regions.
Examines of individual ice sheets show distinct patterns. Greenland experienced its heaviest losses in the 2010s during extreme summer melt events, with surface melting accounting for about one-third of its total loss and two-thirds driven by ice discharge. In Antarctica, net mass loss was entirely due to ocean-driven melting of outlet glaciers.
Decades-Long Momentum and Future Sea Level Risks
The data show that ice sheets remained relatively stable through the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s. Melting began in earnest and accelerated sharply during the 2010s. Although a brief three-year slowdown occurred between 2020 and 2023—driven by record snowfall over East Antarctica—researchers emphasized that this pause reflects short-term weather variations rather than a long-term shift.
That’s something to be concerned about as it shows the changes are tracking decades behind global warming, which means we can expect them to continue for decades more, even if we are able to stop heating the planet.
More than 12 trillion tons of ice lost from Greenland and Antarctica in 47 years
Andrew Shepherd, study co-author at Northumbria University
David Holland, an ice scientist at New York University who was not involved in the study, noted that dynamical ice loss matches expectations for an ice sheet instability collapse scenario. Ted Scambos, an ice scientist at the University of Colorado who also did not participate in the research, called the wild cards of Antarctic mass loss a clear and present danger to human management of the planet.
