What are the sectors that demand credit while the economy slows down?

by time news

2023-10-19 08:21:03

Bogotá — The Colombian economy, in its most recent data, showed a GDP expansion of just 0.3% and since then a campaign by the Government to lower interest rates began in the Board of the Bank of the Republic.

In fact, in the most recent monetary policy meeting the vote ended up leaning towards keeping rates unchanged at 13.25%, but for the first time since that level was reached there were two central bank directors who called for cutting rates by 25 points basics.

High rates are reflected in the fact that both households and companies have a lower appetite for credit since it is more expensive for them to finance their projects.

The commercial portfolio of credit establishments has shown positive evolution in recent years. As of July 2023, the balance of the modality’s gross portfolio reached $341.5 billion, that is, it represents 50.2% of the total portfolio.

The stimuli granted during the pandemic, added to the economic recovery after it, led to an increase in the demand for credit by companies, which has been accompanied by an increase in approval levels by credit establishments. credit.

Between January and July 2023, 363 thousand credit applications were made for $422.7 billion and on a monthly average 96.7% of the requested amount was approved (96% in the last month). These percentages exceed those of other types of credit, such as consumption, for which an average approval rate of 47% was recorded.

Separating by sector, credit applications by companies related to mining extraction and the financial sector reached approval rates of 99.5% and 98.5%, respectively.

However, this percentage is concentrated in a smaller number of approved operations, so it is estimated that there is a greater tendency to approve companies with a higher amount requested per operation in these categories.

On the other hand, sectors such as industry, commerce and agriculture register approval rates higher than 94% and, despite the slowdown in building activity, the construction sector registers approval rates higher than 87%.

In June 2023, the approvals translated into disbursements for a total of $23.7 billion pesos by credit establishments, a behavior that reflects the improvement in terms of disbursements of the commercial portfolio compared to the end of the previous quarter.

Of this amount, the commerce, transportation, hotels and food sector represented 33%, standing out as the main recipient of credits, followed by the industry sector that contributed with disbursements worth $3.9 billion pesos. These two sectors stand out as the main drivers of the commercial portfolio.

Finally, regarding the average terms from the moment of origination, the last month shows a trend similar to that observed for each sector between June 2018 and so far in 2023. The average term for granting the total disbursements is from 17 to 24 months.

However, it is notable that, for specific groups such as employees, pensioners and renters, the terms cover a much wider range, this can be explained by the characteristics of their credit needs, even reaching 62 months in the case of the salaried sector.

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