What awaits Nicaragua under a fourth consecutive government of Daniel Ortega?

by time news

The reelection of Daniel Ortega for a fourth consecutive term, with his opponents imprisoned or in exile, brings Nicaragua a greater political and economic crisis, amid growing international isolation.

Ortega, a former guerrilla who ruled in the 1980s against Washington, and returned to power in 2007, secured five more years in the presidency with 75.92% of the votes on Sunday, before five unknown right-wing candidates, accused of collaborate with the government to validate the process.

The representative opposition was eliminated from the polls for the second time since the 2016 elections. Three political parties were declared illegal and this year 39 opponents were arrested, including seven of Ortega’s rivals.

The president responded fiercely on Monday, calling the European Union “fascist”, which questions the legitimacy of its triumph, and calling the imprisoned opponents “sons of bitches of the Yankee imperialists”.

Nicaraguan exiles in Costa Rica protest in front of the Nicaraguan embassy against the reelection of Ortega. Photo: EFE

Single match

The threat of the international community to impose sanctions, considering that Ortega’s re-election was not democratic, could push the country back to the difficult decade of conflicts and economic sanctions that Ortega’s first government faced in the 1980s, according to analysts.

Political scientists and sociologists consulted by the AFP agency agree that Nicaragua will consolidate a single party model with the Sandinista Front (FSLN, left) that Ortega controls, as is the case in Cuba with the Communist Party.

For Ortega, “the ideal political regime is the Cuban model because (he believes that) the existence of several political parties divides the nation,” said economist and analyst Enrique Sáenz.

“As things are, with all the opposition parties in the illegality, de facto, it is already a single party regime,” he estimated.

Reactions after Sunday's elections in Nicaragua.  / AFP

Reactions after Sunday’s elections in Nicaragua. / AFP

He affirmed that the political groups “that Ortega tolerates are the troupes (collaborators) who are subordinate to his will in exchange for small perks.”

Nicaraguan writer Gioconda Belli points out that “Ortega’s decision to stay in power at any price suggests that he will fully install a system closed to national opposition and the influence of the international community.”

“These rigged elections are a declaration of war against whoever opposes him,” he predicted. Days ago, Gioconda Belli had denounced that these elections were a blow to democracy.

Dialogue?

In January, the president announced that he would promote a national dialogue after the elections, but did not specify details.

“A dialogue under these conditions is impossible. After imprisoning the opposition, who is he going to talk to?”, Questioned Belli.

Followers of Daniel Ortega came out to celebrate in Managua his announced victory in the controversial elections on Sunday.  Photo: AFP

Followers of Daniel Ortega came out to celebrate in Managua his announced victory in the controversial elections on Sunday. Photo: AFP

“At this stage, the only possible negotiation that exists in his mind is for his opponents to negotiate unconditional surrender. Any measure that he promotes with this name will only be a stratagem to seek recognition of the status quo,” said analyst Sáenz.

What will happen to the imprisoned opponents?

For the sociologist Oscar René Vargas, Ortega’s objective is mainly to open a dialogue to restore your relationship with big capital, possibly in exchange for “an agreement to share power quotas in the economic field.” He did not rule out that he offers to “free the political prisoners.”

The expert on security and governance issues Elvira Cuadra does not believe that “the Ortega-Murillo government has the capacity to open a credible space for dialogue.”

“Probably it is going to force some actors, such as big capital, to establish a space for dialogue, but it is based on kidnapped wills, at the point of threats and at the point of arrests,” said Cuadra.

Between June and October, in the midst of the new repressive wave against the opposition, at least four businessmen were arrested, including the two leaders of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep).

For Amnesty International, which condemned the repression of the protests that broke out in 2018 against the government, with a balance of more than 300 deaths, Nicaragua is heading towards “a new and terrible cycle for human rights.”

For Cuadra, “the possibilities of a social outbreak” similar to that of 2018 “is quite difficult” despite social discontent, due to the “policy of repression and control that exists over citizens.”

Belli however estimates that the abstention which was recorded on Sunday, which an independent observatory estimates at 81% and the electoral court at 34%, indicates that there is “a silent social outbreak.”

“If we consider, on the one hand, that recent independent polls show that support for Ortega is at a minimum and unemployment, underemployment and the high cost of living continue to grow, the obvious conclusion is that sooner or later they will explode. protests again, “Saenz warned.

“Ortega only has repression, and repression is not enough to indefinitely subdue the rejection of the population,” he concluded.

Source: AFP

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