What if we escaped the recession in 2023?

by time news
The slight recovery of the French economy between January and March should be driven by a mechanical rebound in the energy sector. Here, a refinery. ERIC PIERMONT/AFP

DECRYPTION – The disaster scenarios, which were based on assumptions of prolonged load shedding this winter, have, for the moment, been ruled out.

A passenger air hole. Contrary to what some economic analysts had feared this fall, France should resist the depression next year. This is the message conveyed by the latest INSEE economic note, published on Thursday. Titled “Cooling,” the study views the year-end slowdown as “a cold from which one recoversexplained Julien Pouget, in charge of the situation for the Institute.

After a decline of 0.2% in the last quarter caused largely by the energy crisis – which prompted INSEE to lower its growth forecast to 2.5% for 2022 instead of the 2.6% expected until then – , economic activity should rebound from the start of next year: initially modestly by 0.1%, then a little more firmly by 0.3% in Q2. This predictionillustrates the resilient nature of the French economy and its ability to quickly overcome winter shocks“, rejoices Bercy. This slight recovery would be carried, between…

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