2023-07-05 17:31:52
The military point 501 | Scenarios of a direct participation of Minsk had been formulated at the beginning of the invasion. After the uprising, Lukashensko mediated and offered to host the militiamen
The Northern front is that of waiting, of the impending threat linked to an ambiguous character: Aleksander Lukashenko.
In the first days of the invasion, scenarios had been formulated of a direct participation of Minsk with a precise mission: to cut the supply lines that fed (and feed) Kiev from the Polish border. Maps with arrows, enveloping bows, plans similar to those that the Belarusian leader himself had “unveiled” live for Moldova were circulating. The danger did not materialize but it still forced Ukraine to deploy significant forces to avoid surprises. The neighboring country has played a precious role as a rear for the invaders, has welcomed units, has favored the passage of trains (sometimes sabotaged), has constituted a platform of attack. Finally, giving greater significance to its strategic partnership, it accepted Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. The dictator thus essentially confirmed a line of total support for Putin without however risking his men in the war campaign. He didn’t want to and didn’t have the means.
After Wagner’s failed revolt, option B emerged. Lukashensko acted as mediator, he became the man of the moment, so he offered to host the militiamen, albeit in a framework to be defined. In essence, he has approved the creation of a tent camp inside a disused military site in the Asipovichy area, 100 kilometers from Minsk. A temporary headquarters, documented by satellite photos from the BBC, to welcome those who are ready to move. What are the numbers? Between 1,000 and 8,000 men were assumed, but no concrete details emerged. According to the Belarusian leader, the mercenaries could act as instructors for his army, a device considered – with the exception of some departments – below normal standards. Provided that he really trusts the “musicians”, with whom he has had conflicts in the past and who are veterans of an insurrection, capable of challenging the Kremlin’s authority.
The movements have been monitored from Ukraine with varying observations. The head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov recognized the value of the company’s fighters but seemed to play down the risk of their maneuver from Belarus. In almost the same hours, however, President Zelensky did not underestimate his adversary and ordered – perhaps also to send messages to the West – a reinforcement of the line-up so as to be able to face any sortie. High attention – always at the level of declarations – by the Baltic states.
Any “colony” of Wagnerites on Belarusian soil could become a form of pressure on Kiev (certainly not far away), a diversion that prevents the Ukrainians from diverting necessary troops to the south and east, the focus of the offensive. As long as it is equipped with tanks, vehicles, missiles, or the equipment necessary to carry out operations. But it is also true that, at the moment, the militiamen have become almost “invisible” and their “chef” a ghost who communicates through very short audio from who knows where.
The other unknown concerns the relations between Lukashenko and the mercenaries. According to the expert Maxim Samurokov, the Russian government considers the Belarusian friend as a useful tool, incorporated into its sphere of influence, who however must fully honor the “contract”, i.e. manage Wagner so that it does not become a new problem.
July 5, 2023 (change July 5, 2023 | 5:31 pm)
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