The elections that Nigeria is holding this Saturday have been described as crucial for democracy in Africa, a continent where military coups and attempts by some rulers to cling to power raise fears of a “democratic setback” after the progress made since the end of the Cold War.
More than a dozen African countries go to the polls in the next 12 months. But according to experts, the most important will be the presidential and parliamentary elections in Nigeria, the most populous country on the continent.
Nigeria “is a country that sets the standard,” says Nic Cheeseman, an expert on African politics and professor at the University of Birmingham. “If the elections are successful and deemed democratic, it will be a huge morale booster for democracy in general across Africa… but the opposite may also be true.”
For the director of the Abuja Center for Democracy and Development, Idayat Hassan, the elections are both a reason for optimism and a test to overcome. “On one hand, they are a sign of progress,” she says. “Nigeria has now had almost 24 years of uninterrupted democracy and is complying with the limit of two legislatures [para los presidentes]. But Nigeria has to get it right.”
The American magazine of global affairs Foreign Policy He called Nigeria’s elections the most important on the planet in 2023, “a global event, even if the world hardly knows it.”
intertwined crises
The elections come at a critical time for the continent. In addition to coups in West Africa, extremism has spread and wars have broken out. With investment stagnating, economies are struggling to remedy the damage inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation that was partly generated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, among many other problems. Investment has stalled.
Nigeria is suffering from multiple intertwined crises: economic turbulence and a large part of its territory affected by violence, extremism and crime. From kidnappings for ransom in the north-west of the country to 12 years of jihadist insurgency in the north-east, to separatist violence in the south-east and the decades-old ethnic tensions that have confronted herders and farmers in the north-central region.
The two terms in office of Muhammadu Buhari, the outgoing president, have been widely regarded as highly disappointing. Even his wife apologized to the Nigerians for not living up to expectations.
The Nigerian currency suffered a new fall in early February after the “surprising” downgrade that the Moody’s agency announced in its credit risk rating for the country’s debt. The International Monetary Fund has raised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2023, but only to 3.2%.
A close election
According to analysts, Nigerians still trust the elected government to solve the country’s challenges and have been following a particularly intense campaign with great interest. In Cheeseman’s words, “these are very competitive and close elections.”
Eighteen candidates are vying to replace Buhari and their diversity, analysts say, demonstrates the health of Nigerian democracy. The main dispute is between Bola Tinubu, from the ruling Congress of Progressives party; Atiku Abubakar, from the opposition Popular Democratic Party; and Peter Obi of the Labor Party, who is leading some polls.
Tinubu, 70, and Atiku, 76, have major bases across the country. Both are considered traditional politicians who will try to mobilize voters using their gigantic capacity for organization and spending.
Former businessman Obi, 61, is perceived as a reformer keen to fix the Nigerian political system. His protest campaign is based on social networks, word of mouth and the impulse of his followers, mostly young people. More than 80% of the 10 million new voters who have registered for the upcoming elections are under 34 years of age.
“Obi has emerged as a third force that has destabilized a political landscape dominated by both traditional parties… although, realistically, his chances are slim,” says Mucahid Durmaz, a West Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, an intelligence firm. of global risks. “The democratic advances achieved since the end of the three decades of military rule [en 1999] They show that, despite all the problems, the direction remains positive”.
In a novelty in a Nigerian election, analysts stress that there is no ex-military among the main candidates.
An important factor of these elections is the technology that will identify voters using facial recognition and fingerprints. The authorities are confident that this will make the punching that has historically marred electoral processes in Nigeria more difficult. According to Hassan, they will be “elections that reflect the main dividing lines, but in which confidence in the electoral process is renewed.”
Message to the rest of the continent
A peaceful transfer of power could help stem the wave of instability that has gripped West Africa over the past three years, with Mali and Burkina Faso seeing elected governments replaced by military regimes.
Nigeria’s elections could also send a message to other leaders and parties on the continent who are reluctant to relinquish power. Teodoro Obiang has been ruling Equatorial Guinea since 1979; Paul Biya has governed Cameroon since 1982; and Yoweri Museveni has kept Uganda under tight control since 1986.
In other places, those who continue to rule are the parties that once defeated colonialism. The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has ruled the country for decades, and the African National Union (Zanu-PF) has controlled Zimbabwe since 1981.
“This is an important barometer for Africa [que] I could show the cards of other leaders and say to the dinosaurs, ‘Your time is up,’” Cheeseman concludes.
Translation by Francisco de Zárate.