What is happening around Upper Karabakh?

Gultekin Hajibeyli, member of the Coordination Center of the National Council

The Azerbaijani authorities have put themselves, the people of Azerbaijan, and the worst of all, the perspective of Karabakh into a difficult situation with three serious mistakes (this is the mildest assessment). These are the following:

1. The infamous and unconstitutional Tripartite Declaration of November 10, 2020.
2. Document of strategic alliance with the Russian Federation dated February 22, 2022.
3. The bloody incident on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border on September 13, 2022.

These are the most basic strategic mistakes, if we want, this list can be extended a lot, for example, the unsuccessful organization and presentation of the action on the road to Lachin, the failure to allow the European Union’s civilian observation mission to Azerbaijan, the mass “illness” of the members of the Azerbaijani delegation during the adoption of fateful decisions about Ukraine in international institutions, and etc.

My purpose in writing this status is not to take revenge on the armchair-loving, short-sighted government, not the Motherland, which made us traitors when we said all these mistakes, but to share my very serious concern about Karabakh, maybe it was useful.

Armenians have never presented the Karabakh conflict to the world as a territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have always tried to pass off this conflict as a war for self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh and then Artsakh Armenian people. For example, Armenia has always claimed that the occupation of 7 districts of Azerbaijan around Upper Karabakh was carried out not by the Armed Forces of Armenia, but by the military self-defense forces of Nagorno-Karabakh. Because one country’s occupation of another country’s territory is unequivocally rejected by international law, and the world does not accept the result of such an occupation. Therefore, Pashinyan’s statement that “Karabakh is not a territory, it is a matter of human rights” is not the fact that Armenians give up their claims on Karabakh, but human rights and its conflict are more favorable than the unpromising and reprehensible level of a country making a claim on its neighbor’s territory recognized by international law and encroachment. as a continuation, it is shifting to the level of self-determination. Especially in the current international conjuncture (Russia-Ukraine war), it is clear to everyone that the territorial claim has no perspective, and still, in the current international background, the struggle of peoples for self-determination arouses more serious sympathy.

Unfortunately, the fact that Pashinyan repeatedly said “We are ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan” does not give us a chance to breathe easy. On the contrary, there is a trap prepared for Azerbaijan. This does not mean that I am against making peace with Armenia, on the contrary, I am in favor of this peace being achieved as soon as possible and the South Caucasus walking together on the road to European integration as soon as possible. But at least this time, let’s do our job cleanly, let’s not repeat the gross mistakes we made on November 10, let’s not allow someone to bury a long-term mine under Azerbaijan’s statehood.

Luis Bono, the representative of the South Caucasus of the US State Department, made a statement during his recent visit to Azerbaijan: “We understand the security concerns of Azerbaijan”, and I was happy with this statement.

The biggest security problem that Azerbaijan is currently facing is the 18,000-strong occupying Armenian army in Upper Karabakh, armed to the teeth. As long as such anthrax exists in the country, there can be no peace for the state and people of Azerbaijan.

Armenians themselves admit that this army is an aggressor. Thus, on all international platforms, Armenia admitted that 7 regions of Azerbaijan were occupied by Karabakh Armenian military units. That is why it is no longer possible to label them as “self-defense forces”, they are actually occupying forces and war criminals who, together with Armenia, are the cause of the tragedies experienced by the Azerbaijani people for 30 years – occupation, ethnic cleansing, Khojaly genocide, destruction of thousands of our settlements.

On the other hand, there is no doubt that these forces receive support from Armenia and are fed from Armenia, because the so-called regime of 50-60 thousand people does not have the potential to create and provide for an army of 15-18 thousand people, and it is impossible to imagine it.

What is Armenia’s desire?

Armenia signs peace with Azerbaijan without making Karabakh a subject of discussion and supposedly leaves the game. It gets rid of the burden of 30 years of occupation, it achieves the opening of communications and more reliable transport links with Russia without paying any compensation to Azerbaijan, and most importantly, the road to the European Union opens.

Azerbaijan faces international pressure regarding the future status of Karabakh. On the other hand, Armenia, which has already become a “peace swallow”, continues to arm the separatist regime and maintain its 18,000-strong army, either through the Lachin Corridor or through alternative routes between Karabakh and Armenia. And it is clear that the Karabakh Armenians, who have received an 18,000-strong occupation army behind them, will never give up their right to self-determination.

What should Azerbaijan do?

1. Azerbaijan should urgently implement a strict control regime on the Lachin road, establish border crossing and customs control posts and take control of every inch of the Azerbaijan-Armenia border.

2. Azerbaijan should clearly inform Russia and Armenia that the status of the Lachin road will be the same as the Zangezur road, that is, the width of these roads and the state control regimes established on them will be the same. There is no road 5 km wide, this is not a road, but a land connection between Karabakh and Armenia, such a road has no analogues in the world and should not exist in Azerbaijan either.
3. The Azerbaijani authorities, acting in the interests of the supreme state, should demand from Russia the withdrawal of all Armenian military forces from the territory under their control in accordance with paragraph 4 of the November 10 Statement, otherwise, it should not hesitate to state that the Azerbaijani side may change its position regarding the tripartite declaration.
4. This suggestion is from the realm of fiction, but I will say it again. Let them not come upon us with police violence, let them not encroach on our freedom of free assembly. We, as the National Council, or if they hesitate, let me and the intellectuals, on our own initiative, organize a mass rally with the slogans “Let the invading Russian Army leave our country”, “IVAN GET”, and let the real voice of the Azerbaijani people be heard.