President Joe Biden is no slouch in Democratic launches these days.
Before the presidential debate at the end of June, many people talked worriedly about the age of 81 years. After the debate, which was disastrous for Biden, his age is the main focus of almost the entire American people.
As of Friday afternoon, 19 out of 213 Democratic congressmen have said publicly that Joe Biden should withdraw as the party’s presidential candidate.
One of the 47 Democratic Senators, Peter Welch, has said the same thing that has counted New York Times.
Joe Biden during the opening of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday.
Photo: KEVIN DIETSCH / AFP
In addition, nearly 30 party members have expressed concern about the situation, and have questioned whether the situation is sustainable.
At the same time, just under 60 Democrats have publicly endorsed Biden, and say they support him for president.
In other words, a lot can happen in the next few days. Below you can read about five possible scenarios for the future:
- Biden is not giving up
- Biden pulls back and points at Harris
- Biden points toward the national gathering
- Biden is voted out against his will
- Biden resigns as president
Biden is not giving up
– If he does not resign, he will probably be nominated at the national meeting in August. Then all the Democrats have to do is give up and try to get him elected, says Hilde Restad, associate professor at New Oslo University College.
The first time Joe Biden ran as the Democratic presidential candidate was in 1988.
Last Thursday, he clarified his position again: he has no plans in mind. He will still be the country’s oldest president ever.
Hilde Restad, associate professor at New Oslo University College.
Photo: Martin Holvik / NRK
US expert and professor of political science at Høgskulen på Vestlandet Hilmar Mjelde believes that the most likely scenario is that Biden will remain in office.
– American presidents rarely retire early. Biden does not want to be the first person for a long time to do that, says Mjelde to NRK.
Tågvold Flaten, editor of amerikanspolitikk.no, tells NRK that he thinks there is a 60 percent chance that Biden will keep him going.
Deborah Kitchen-Døderlein, associate professor of American history and culture at UIO, believes that the pressure and scrutiny from the media makes Biden more determined.
– He feels bullied and pushed into a corner. The more they push him, the less likely he is to withdraw, according to Kitchen-Døderlein.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the presidential debate in June, which was broadcast on CNN.
Photo: AFP
Although the polls in the United States do not agree down to the decimal point, they are mostly unanimous that Donald Trump is likely to win the election, if it is between him and Biden.
According to the newspaper The Hill, who writes about American politics, there is a 56 percent probability that Donald Trump will win. According to them, Trump has a 2.6 lead in the polls.
For Democrats, however, it’s not just about the presidential election. If there aren’t many votes for Biden, there will usually be fewer votes for the congressional candidates.
This could mean they lose the House of Representatives, the Senate and the opportunity to influence their own policies.
Do you think Joe Biden will be the Democratic presidential candidate?
Yes, it’s just a chance to win Yes, but don’t think it’s a good idea No, think it’s wasted No, I think he’ll retire
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Biden points to Harris
If Biden chooses to withdraw as a presidential candidate before the upcoming election, Vice President Kamala Harris will be his natural heir.
– If Biden stands behind Harris, you minimize the chances of games being played, says Restad.
– The party may discover that there is no time for nonsense, and that they must gather around Harris. But it opens the door for disagreements, other candidates and backroom games.
Deborah Kitchen-Døderlein, associate professor at UIO.
Photo: Private
Kitchen-Døderlein believes that a potential successor will not have enough time to establish himself as a presidential candidate before the election. However:
– I would be surprised if he did not inform Harris in such a situation. If Biden does it voluntarily, Harris may have a better chance than many others.
Kitchen-Døderlein points out that Biden can transfer his election money, or donations, to Harris, while they are on the same ballot.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris during the 4th of July celebration last week.
Photo: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Biden points toward the national gathering
Biden can also withdraw as a presidential candidate, without appointing an heir. The decision will then be taken at the party’s national meeting in August.
– Therefore, there is a flood of people to take off, says Hilde Restad, who believes that such a situation would quickly become chaotic.
– If there is an open national meeting where everyone can nominate themselves, suddenly you will have things going.
Restad believes that it would be best for the Democrats if Biden voluntarily stepped aside as a candidate.
The experts who spoke to NRK believe that it is unlikely that Biden will direct an heir, if he withdraws as a candidate.
Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP
Are Tågvold Flaten believes that it is unlikely that Biden will resign without appointing a successor. And Harris is the natural heir, says Flaten.
– It will be a declaration of bankruptcy at his discretion as vice president, says Flaten.
Kitchen-Døderlein also thinks this is unlikely.
– Then they had to have new ones
A primary election is the same as a nomination election, where the party decides who they nominate, or want, as a presidential candidate.
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Biden is removed against his will
When the Democratic national convention is held in August, the presidential candidate will also be officially chosen. Because Biden is an obvious candidate, his party colleagues have not formally chosen him.
Kitchen-Døderlein believes that it is unlikely that the Democrats would be able to gather around a new candidate, so shortly before the national convention will be held.
– I also don’t think many people want to go against it, because they know they will lose. Those who want to be president, they are not going to waste their dream on what they know is a losing cause, according to her.
– The delegates at the national convention were elected with a promise to vote for Biden, but they shouldn’t, says Is Tågvold Flaten.
He still believes that if Biden holds his position until the national convention, he will also be the party’s candidate.
Biden resigns as president
Biden can also choose to withdraw as a presidential candidate and as president with immediate effect. The presidency will then pass to Kamala Harris, who will again have to choose a new vice president.
The NRK experts said they believe this outcome is the least likely. If Biden chooses to resign as president, the club he will be part of is a very small one: Biden and Richard Nixon, who resigned after him
The Republican and President Richard Nixon commissioned people to keep an eye on the plans of the Democrats before the 1972 presidential election that was in the Watergate building, hence the name.
The most important revelation in the case was that the president himself was actively involved.
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– The only possibility for Harris to become president before Biden’s term as president ends is if he becomes physically ill or dies. He is not going to give up, says Kitchen-Døderlein.
US expert Hilmar Mjelde categorizes the five results as follows:
– Alternatives one to three are most likely – in that order. Case four is out of the question, in my opinion. A case of five is also unlikely.
Published
12.07.2024, kl. 17.44
Updated
14.07.2024, kl. 14.20