“Government of Salvation”
In early 2019, HTS took control of most of Idlib province (northwest) to the detriment of other rebel groups. And he created the “government of salvation”, which controls the economy of Idlib and to which most of the judges are supposed to be loyal.
“Rebels began to establish structures of radical control“, noted the Soufan center, which is based in New York.”Some of these efforts go back several years, with sophisticated efforts to subsidize food prices and stabilize the banking and energy sectors.“.
With the agencies of the UN, the government of salvation”it provides essential services to the population“, specifies the AFP Jérôme Drevon, an expert on jihadism for the ICG. And even if some consider it authoritarian,”it offers homogeneous governance that contrasts with other regions of Syria“.
Relationships to rethink?
In mid-2023, the French journalist wassim Nasr met with the leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, in Idlib province.
“He and his group are no longer engaged in international Jihad […]. They consider this ‘It only brings destruction and failure'”, he explained when he returned to the magazine CTC Sentinel, from the American military academy west Point.
“Girls go to school,women drive,you see people smoking in the street. Of course, they are far from embracing democratic values or the democratic values of a liberal society, but it is indeed a change“.
A progress that Jérôme Drevon has created his honesty. ”In January 2017, one could wonder if this was a tactical move by Al-Qaeda to avoid the attention of countries such as the United States.” on HTS, he remembers. “But now,it behaves like an insurgent group”,without “the aspect of international terrorism”.
For him, this ideological shift and his power against the regime of Bashar al-Assad should push the West “rethink their relationship” by HTS.
If the UN, the United States and some European countries consider this group still a terrorist, “we will have to find ways to manage this situation, including by starting a dialogue“, considers the analyst.
jihadist risk
But some observers caution,asserting that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains essentially a radical Islamist group,in a Syrian context that is as complex as it is indeed changing.
“The group has shown itself to be extremely opportunistic in its alliances and loyalty“, emphasizes Tammy Palacios, who is in charge of counter-terrorism at the Institute of New Lines, certain that it will remain a “jihadist association until its leadership ends its ties with more radical groups and Jihadists“.
A self-proclaimed translation”it is not necessarily shared by all its members“and he”it continues to focus on Al-Qaeda’s major interests and objectives“, she told AFP.
The jihadist risk in northern Syria remains huge in this regard. “HTS can be made with Al-Qaeda but Al-Qaeda is not made with HTS“.
In addition, participation in the rebellion “terrorist organizations raise concerns”, warned the Soufan Center.