Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Shatterstock) Writers’ Photos (Private and Credit: Photo by Uri Kotlersky: The Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations)
A number of Western officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron and British Foreign Secretary Liz Tras, are skipping the Moscow-Kiev axis in a diplomatic effort to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Last night (Saturday), for the third time in the last two weeks, a one-hour conversation between Putin and Baiden has not yielded significant progress. Now the eyes and questions of Europe and the whole world are turned to the Kremlin – what does Vladimir Putin want?
“Cold effect”: between the home and the international arena
It can be assumed that one of the factors behind Putin’s actions vis-à-vis Ukraine stems from a desire to channel victory in the international arena for domestic needs. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and in particular the sanctions regime imposed by the US and Europe on Moscow, accompanied by a sense of “the whole world is against us”, raised Putin’s support rating from 60% to 80%.
Russian experts called this phenomenon a “cold effect” when they came to describe a wave of euphoria that swept the country. This move helped Putin strengthen his image as a defender of Russian interests in the international arena, and many citizens were thrilled to see what they saw as the return of their nation to operate as a great power as before.
(Photo: Shatterstock)
In the long run, the political reforms led by Putin to raise the retirement age in Russia, and even more so, the recent protests against the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (who returned to Russia after treatment in Germany after his alleged poisoning by Russian intelligence services), during which thousands of protesters were arrested The penal colony, where he is currently serving his sentence, has given its signals in this aspect – and Putin will now be happy to go for moves, even if extreme, in order to achieve another victory that will establish legitimacy for the next round of elections in 2024.
Another factor is the delegitimization of democracy as a regime. Putin’s threats against Ukraine can be interpreted as an attempt to undermine the democratic Ukraine that made a turn towards the West in 2014 after mass demonstrations across the country that demanded Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU.
Ukrainian tanks ready for Russian invasion (Photo: Shatterstock)
The mirrors of the failed protests in Belarus and Kazakhstan are supposed to help undermine democracy as a sustainable regime in the long run, as well as lay a certain infrastructure for the re-establishment of Russian spheres of influence in Europe. Creating the equation that a country that obliterates its leader in mass demonstrations then suffers should also deter the Russian public from any revolutionary ideas.
The return of international prestige to Russia is a goal in this sense for Putin and those around him, and is based on Putin’s view that the collapse of the Soviet bloc was “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century,” during which Russia became “a completely different country. More than a thousand years, he was mostly lost. “
(Photo: Shatterstock)
The collapse of the Soviet bloc also has a mental aspect of a loss to the West in Putin’s eyes, which fears the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine in light of the great geographical proximity to the capital.
That is, in Putin’s eyes, Ukraine is not really a separate country from Russia: “Our closeness has been passed down from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and memory of the people living in Russia and modern Ukraine. Together we have always been and will often be stronger and more successful. Ukraine is the crown jewel for those close to the Russian government, and many of them believe that without it Russia could not be considered a power.
A combination of nostalgia for the greatness that once existed in the eyes of the Kremlin, the belief that the Ukrainians are not necessarily a people in their own right, or at most a particularly close one, the sense of unfair loss to the West in the form of collapse of the USSR and internal interests. His eyes to the west, to Kiev.
And what will happen now?
Many, in examining the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in its current incarnation, make the following assessment regarding a possible Russian invasion: “The Ukrainians will not fight,” this assumption is based on the differences in capabilities between the armies, and to some extent on the thought that there is no logic in fighting an enemy. His face is dramatically strong. In addition, proponents of this approach say, “See what happened in 2014,” Russian soldiers, lacking official Russian military insignia took control of key points in the Crimean peninsula, and in a referendum dictated and conducted by the Kremlin annexed the Crimean peninsula to Russia – the Ukrainians were furious , But did not oppose militarily.
The gas pipeline between Russia and the West (Photo: Shatterstock)
It was enough to walk the streets of Kiev yesterday to identify a failure in this argument. Yesterday, in a spontaneous demonstration following recent reports that the US estimates that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is approaching, thousands marched through the streets of Kiev, holding a sign “Ukrainians will resist” and a repeated shout “Death to enemies”.
Since the revolution on the streets of Kiev in 2014 Ukraine has gone through, the conflict against Russia-backed separatists in the country has strengthened the public, the military has gained experience in fighting, and Western countries’ aid and contributions from the Ukrainian diaspora around the world have helped advance an old and much-needed military force.
In recent weeks, many arms shipments have arrived in Kiev, whether from London or Washington, as well as from neighboring European countries (especially those that are more afraid of the Russian bear than the other – the Baltic states and Poland). The hatred and anger among the Ukrainian public towards Russia, perceived at best as a nurse who betrayed them in 2014 and at worst as a factor that oppressed the Ukrainians for centuries, whether under the Tsars or under the Soviet regime, is deep-rooted and deep.
Ukrainian protesters in Kiev (Photo: Shatterstock)
In short, a scenario in which the Ukrainian army will not fight against a Russian invasion is almost unthinkable. Moreover, Ukraine is a country with almost 45 million citizens, and the Ukrainian people see its ability to organize as a source of pride – partisan warfare in World War II, demonstrations before the fall of the USSR, the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution in 2014 (in which Ukraine turned to Europe The Russian giant account), all in his eyes provide proof of this ability to organize.
Ukrainian history is also rich in expressions of anarchism, and recent polls show that a very significant portion of the Ukrainian public is willing to take up arms and resist Russian invasion even with its own hands. However, if Putin decides to invade, there is no doubt that he will encounter dramatic resistance, both in the short term and in the long term.
As of this moment, there are a number of plausible scenarios regarding the development of tensions in Eastern Europe.
Scenario 1: Descending from the tree – calming the winds
At times there seems to be such a dramatic gap between what is happening in Moscow and Washington that these may be different worlds. While the Americans are daily sending warnings of a Russian invasion of Ukraine that is approaching, diplomats are being evacuated, and citizens are being urged to leave the country immediately, in Russia there seems to be complete peace.
Also yesterday when the Russians reported a partial evacuation of the embassy in Kiev the argument for this was based mainly on a concern for the departure of the Americans. The Russians strongly claim that they have no intention of invading Ukraine, and that in general the situation is reversed, the Ukrainians are already planning to occupy the conflict zones with the separatists.
While this gap shows how far Russia and the United States have moved away that for a brief moment in the 1990s seemed to be becoming “almost friendships” but it also allows for something else. Openly about the hysteria and madness of the West, which has envisioned invasions and wars when there are none and slanders peace-seeking Russia.
(Photo: Shatterstock)
The difficulty in predicting the Russian leader’s behavior stems, of course, from the fact that it is not entirely clear to what extent there is any influence over him within Russia. After the weakening of the opposition and the consistent establishment of power in its hands, it seems that the decision on war is currently only in its hands, or at most in the immediate circle around it.
Putin may eventually appreciate that the threat of sanctions from the West is not worth it, but if there is anything that will make Putin decide in the end not to invade it is likely to be another factor. Many of Putin’s actions are based on the attempt to preserve and hold power, a bloody war in Ukraine, with many thousands killed in the Russian army, could significantly damage his rule, Russians remember what the USSR experienced in Afghanistan, and even remember the rise of opposition voices against Yeltsin during the fighting In Chechnya.These memories together, may lead to a decision in the Kremlin to wait for a later date, or alternatively to an attempt to replace the government in Kiev in a more elegant way.
Scenario 2: Annexation of separatist territories in eastern Ukraine
The problem with Putin’s previous scenario, even if he decides that an invasion will be too expensive for him, is that the West can openly declare that Russia has folded, and that once faced with the Kremlin he returns with his tail between his legs. This scenario is very problematic for the Kremlin, which largely sees the international arena as an arena for confrontation with Washington. Putin, even if he decides to withdraw, will be interested in a victory picture over NATO.
The celebrations in the Russian public from the annexation of Crimea in 2014 are still firmly anchored in the head of the Russian leadership. It is possible then that Putin will decide to annex the same territories of the separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk, and declare that Russia is its brother’s defender west of it in the face of the Ukrainians threatening them.
In this way either side will also be able to claim at least a partial victory, the West will impose sanctions on Russia but return the hardships in which to the warehouse and claim that Russia had planned to go as far as Kiev but was frightened. The Russians, would argue the mirror image of this, because the Ukrainians planned to occupy the region, and Russia prevented this and proved once again its defensive tendencies and its commitment to the Russian minorities residing in other countries.
Scenario 3: Conquest of Kiev – Replacement of power by force
There is of course the most problematic scenario, such a move involves so many risks and difficulties that many figures in the political arena in Russia and Ukraine (and so in the world) find it difficult to believe that it is at all possible or logical. But due to the fact that Western intelligence agencies repeat it time and time again it cannot be denied.
(Photo: Shatterstock)
It is possible that Russia has indeed decided to break the tools facing the West, that it is willing to risk harsher sanctions than in the past (or alternatively that it believes that sanctions will actually strengthen Russian rule and exacerbate the energy crisis they will lead to hurting Europe more than it does). Russian soldiers. Some estimates speak of the danger of the extermination of about 10,000 Russian troops (almost the same amount Russia lost in both Chechnya and Georgia wars) in a few days.
“The weapons that have been transferred from the West to Ukraine in recent times are mainly aimed at anti-tank fire with a view to making Russian progress difficult. “.
Assuming Putin does choose this scenario, whether due to a calculation error, or if from an unwanted escalation of the situation from a chain of events at the front, the eyes of the world will be turned towards Ukraine for a long time. It is very likely that Russia, after heavy airstrikes, cyber attacks and physical invasion, will reach as far as Kiev, force a change of government and appoint a pro-Russian president (possibly Yanukovych, who was ousted in 2014 and is still in Russia today).
It is difficult to assess the consequences of such an event, the Russian army will experience many losses, both in the short term and years ahead in trying to control a public we do not want, many thousands of Ukrainians will be killed, relations between the West and Russia will reach an unprecedented low since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Russian economy will suffer fatally, both from sanctions but mainly from war expenses, and Europe and the whole world will become a significantly less secure place.
Such an invasion would lead to an extraordinary arms race in Europe led by countries fearing that they would be next in line – moreover, the countries of the world would remember Ukraine’s lesson – Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 to ensure its peace and territorial integrity – the next country to decide On a nucleus, think twice.
Meital Wiener-Sardetsa and Uri Kotlersky are teaching assistants and students in the direct doctoral program in the Department of International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
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