Think pension reform in France, think massive street protests. The demonstrations and strikes that President Macron’s attempts to change the country’s complex pensions system prompted have, unsurprisingly, dominated the headlines.
Since details of this latest attempt to reform French pension rules were first announced in January, unions have been holding a series of strikes and protests – and these are likely to continue throughout the spring as the reform bill makes its way through parliament.
This reform is the flagship domestic policy of Macron’s second and final term in office, with the president determined to implement it despite fierce opposition from the political left and unions, but also the wider public.
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The bill contains a number of different articles including the headline-grabbing Article 7 – which raises the standard retirement age from 62 to 64 – and changes to the ‘special regimes’ that allow many public sector workers to retire early.
But, where are we at in the parliamentary process? How much longer can the protests continue before a final bill – if it gets that far – becomes law?
MPs in the lower house, the Assemblée nationale, started debating the reform bill in early February. Labour Minister Olivier Dussopt said, at the start of a stormy Assembly debatethat: “Our (pensions) system is structurally in deficit… Doing nothing is not an option.”
The debates were extremely stormy and parliament was suspended several times because of the rowdy behaviour and ripe language of certain politicians. In the end, the debate time ran out before they even got to the most controversial bit – Article 7, which is about the raising of the pension age – and the bill moved to the Senate.
On Wednesday night, Senators voted in favour or raising by retirement age by 201 votes to 115.
But this is far from the end, and the next strikes and demos have been timed to coincide with key dates in the parliamentary journey.
Sunday, March 12th
By midnight on Sunday, March 12th, the reform bill will complete its passage through the French Senate, the upper house of parliament, after 11 days of debate – including, unusually, debates at the weekend.
It is expected that the Senate, dominated by the centre-right Les Républicains party, will vote in favour of the bill, although they have added several amendments.
Wednesday, March 15th
Three days later, a joint committee, known as a joint committee (CMP), of seven senators and seven MPs must have examined the text and established a final version of the bill by close of business.
Thursday, March 16th
The text returns to the Assemblée nationale so MPs take take one last look at the CMP’s text. At which point, there’s something of a sliding doors moment.
Assuming a majority in the Assemblée vote in favour of the bill – that’s far from given, given the make-up of the French Parliament following last June’s elections – then we should expect a reasonably early vote.
The Senate, too, gets a say on the final CMP version of the text.
If, however, there’s no agreement, then a new reading of the text of the bill is on the cards. The government could – again – invoke the controversial Article 49.3 which allows a bill to be passed without an MPs’ vote.
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Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has form for triggering Article 49.3. She invoked it 10 times in a matter of weeks last autumn to get the government’s budget passed – each time risking a no-confidence vote. It’s possible she could trigger it again to get Macron’s reform bill over the final hurdle, although she has said publicly that she believes it would be wrong to use the power on such a divisive issue as pension reform.
Sunday, March 26th
Even if the bill is resubmitted for debate, Parliamentary time is short. If it hasn’t been approved by midnight on Sunday, March 26th, another Article – 47.1, which limits Parliamentary debate to 50 days – takes effect.
Not only does this stop any debate in its tracks, it also allows for the government to implement bills that have got stuck in Parliament by decree.
What next?
The government says that if the bill was passed, it wants to bring it into effect from September 2023, so this would mark the first date that people will actually see a change in their pensions.
But whatever happens; whether the government is defeated, whether it wins the vote or whether it resorts to Article 49.3 or implementation by decree, it’s unlikely that this will be the final word on the matter.
You can keep up to date with the latest pension strike announcements HERE.