2023-05-28 20:57:59
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected this Sunday as president of Türkiye after two decades at the forefront of power in which the country has turned towards a model authoritarian based on nationalism and Islamism. Erdogan has won despite having the economic wind against him — the lira is on the ground and the inflation is 50%, although some independent studies raise it to more than 100%– and the political mismanagement of the earthquakes that last February shook the southeast of the country.
This autocratic drift has also been reflected in Ankara’s relations with the European Unionhis role in the I’LL TAKE and, in general, the position it occupies in the world. Everything suggests that Erdogan will maintain a similar course in foreign policy. These are some keys to how Erdogan’s victory can impact outside Turkey’s borders:
More of the same with the EU
The relationship between Türkiye and the EU is at a low point. He accession process is at an impasse and it is taken for granted that Erdogan will maintain his disagreement with Brussels and his antioccidental rhetoric. “We will continue in the same situation that we have now, that is, competition y hostility on some issues, cooperation on others and a transactional logic of exchange”, explains Eduard Soler Lecha, professor of International Relations at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) and researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB). However, the relationship Much will depend on the messages he receives from European leaders: “If they read you the primer, you’ll start off on the wrong foot.”
Türkiye and the EU signed a agreement in 2016 to provide humanitarian support and cover the health and educational expenses of the refugees, mostly Syrians, who live in the Anatolian country. The pact established at 6,000 million euros the economic compensation for Ankara—spent on construction of schools, hospitals, and a basic monthly payment of a few tens of euros for the Syrian refugee population in Turkey. Since 2016, Erdogan has used border security as a method of extortion against Brussels and has threatened on more than one occasion with Open doors and send to Europe “waves of refugees“.
Emre Amasyalı, a postdoctoral researcher at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionales (IBEI), also sees it as “unlikely” that there will be a drastic change in relations between Ankara and Brussels. In any case, he believes that “the sad economic reality” could lead Erdogan to “adopt a less confrontational stance with the West”, as happened after the earthquakes in February. However, the possible continuation of his “conservative populism” and the probable application of “more repressive policies” will pose a challenge for the community authorities. Kerim Has is of the same opinion , a freelance analyst expert on Eurasian affairs: “I think that, in the short term, [Erdogan] needs to improve relations with the EU. Needs investmentsso he will try to avoid increasing tension with Brussels”. However, in the long term, this expert predicts a “deterioration of relations”, since he believes that Erdogan will increase his challenge to democratic standards and continue to use the “letter refugees” to get something in return.
In any case, the analysts consulted do not foresee a schism. “The level of reciprocal dependence is so strong that it makes it very difficult to imagine the logic of breaking relations, even if the political situation deteriorates. It would have to be something very, very big,” adds the UAB professor.
Within NATO, Türkiye has become the most awkward partnerin it towards free that comes close without complexes to Russia already Chinabut at the same time provides weapons to Ukraine for what Kiev defend against the invasion of Moscow. Nonetheless, Turkey is an important country for the Alliance, with the second largest Army and a strategic physical location.
In the pipeline is Ankara’s blockade of the Swedish admission, a country from which Turkey demands more toughness against the alleged members and sympathizers of the Kurdish guerrilla of the PKK, a group considered terrorist by Turkey and the EU. “Erdogan will accept Sweden’s admission (after the elections). Turkey initially opposed Finland joining NATO, but then gave up. NATO allies have played an important role in earthquake relief,” points out Amasyalı, who also envisions a future with fewer confrontational gestures from the Anatolian country with the rest of its allies.
Has, for his part, believes that Erdogan will end up giving the green light to Sweden but it will wait for the Vilnius summit in July and will try, in return, to obtain “concessions from the US”, such as the modernization of its F-16s or an invitation to the White House. “Erdogan needs the photo with [Joe] Biden to strengthen his international image”, he adds. In his opinion, and contrary to the prevailing opinion, “Turkey coincides in interests with those of the US and the United Kingdom in foreign policy (…). And the fact of keeping a open line with Putin is an advantage for the West”.
Soler Lecha is more prudent and agrees with Has that Erdogan will continue with his “transactional logic” and will try to “get something in return” for his support for Sweden’s accession.
Tightrope walker in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict
In the conflict between Russia y UkraineErdogan has adopted a balance between the two parties that some have dubbed “opportunistic neutrality“. On the one hand, it provides kyiv with weapons, such as the drones Bayraktar TB2 o cluster bombsas revealed by the magazine ‘Foreign Policy’, while on the other hand he refuses to apply sanctions to Moscow and maintains a “special relationship” with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. But beyond this personal harmony between the two leaders, who call each other “friend”, “Turkey depends to a large extent on the Russian economy,” recalls the IBEI researcher, who highlights Turkey’s “enormous trade deficit” with Russia. The Anatolian country imports Russian gas and Erdogan recently inaugurated the central nuclear in Akkuyu, built by Russia, and which will provide 10% of the electricity Turkey needs. But also, The West is a crucial market for exports of manufactured goods. “Turkey depends on ties with the West and Russia. These ties are unlikely to change and Turkey will continue to aspire to play an independent role in world politics,” summarizes Amasyalı.
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“What we will see is more continuity. [Erdogan] will continue the efforts made so far and will try to maintain the logic of seeking a balance”, says Soler Lecha, who recalls that Turkey was one of the countries most critical of the annexation of Crimeain 2014.
In terms of mediation, Erdogan contributed to unblocking the grain compact which allowed the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports, and has also mediated in prisoner exchanges. “The grain agreement is yet another example of the non-aligned role that Turkey wants to play in the conflict,” Emre Amasyalı underlines. Kerim Has does not envision mediation in an eventual peace agreement. “But Erdogan will continue his negotiations and maintain his contacts with Russia and Ukraine.” In short, opportunistic neutrality.
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