what the latest polls say

Matteo Salvini, leader of the Lega (League), Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia, and Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, in Rome, Italy on September 22, 2022. NARDI HEALTH / REUTERS

FOCUS – Opinion polls place the leader of Fratelli d’Italia, Giorgia Meloni, in a good position to become prime minister.

This Friday marks the last day of campaigning in Italy before the early general elections which will take place on Sunday. The latest polls published last week put Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist formation, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) in a good position.

His party is credited with 24 to 25% of the voting intentions, ahead of the Democratic Party between 21 and 22%. This is followed by the 5 Star Movement (ex-antisystems) with 13 to 15%, the League with 12%, Forza Italia (FI) with 8%. The right-wing coalition which brings together Fratelli d’Italia, Forza Italia and the League could win between 45% and 55% of the seats in parliament.

Such a result on election day would allow Giorgia Meloni to claim the post of prime minister and set the course for the coalition, with in particular the liberal right of former head of government Silvio Berlusconi. For his other ally, on the other hand, the boss of the League Matteo Salvini, propelled to power after winning 17% of the votes in the legislative elections of 2018 then 34% in the European elections the following year, the potion would be bitter.

At the height of the crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Italy would be, after Sweden, the second member of the EU to have a coalition government between the right and the extreme right.

“The polls have been denied in the past”

The election is being closely watched in Brussels after the victory of a right-wing and far-right bloc in Sweden, as Giorgia Meloni could become the first female head of government of an EU founding country at the head of a post-fascist party.

Be careful, however, warns Marc Lazar, professor at Sciences Po Paris and at the Luiss University in Rome, if the victory of the conservatives seems acquired, “polls have been denied in the past“. A key factor in this election, the participation rate should drop to a historically low level, below 70%.

Conducted in the middle of summer when the Italians were at the beach, it was “one of the worst campaigns of the post-war period (…) There was no confrontation over the ideas and visions of each», Analyzes Flavio Chiapponi, from the University of Pavia. The coalition of the right generally wants more borders and less Europe “bureaucratic“more birth rate and less immigration, more values”Judeo-Christianand lower taxes.

SEE ALSO – Elections in Italy: the left “is afraid”, according to Giorgia Meloni


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