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After the election, France must now find a new government. But the majority’s situation is complicated by the surprise victory of the left. What does this mean for Macron, France and Europe.
The day after an unexpected result in the parliamentary elections, France has to regroup. The shift to the right is weaker than expected before the election – a left-wing coalition is expected to be the strongest force in the newly elected National Assembly. However, a governing majority is nowhere in sight, and the left also lacks common leadership.
Will the left alliance come to power now?
At least that is what the leaders of the New Front Populaire alliance are claiming as the strongest force in the National Assembly. As president, it is up to Emmanuel Macron to appoint the prime minister. It is not yet clear whether he will accept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s request to resign. It is also unclear who Macron will then commission to form a government.
Despite their surprising success, the left remains far from a pure majority. This means that the other factions could only overthrow the left-wing government through a vote of no confidence. In the last two years, in which the Macron camp only had a relative majority in the parliamentary chamber, it has also been shown how difficult it is to govern in France without a clear majority.
It is unclear whether this would make the left any better, especially since they are likely to have far fewer seats than Macron’s centrist forces had before the dissolution of the National Assembly a few weeks ago. In theory, a coalition of left and center forces is also possible. However, the left-wing alliance has already clearly rejected such an alliance.
What is the schedule for them? The formation of the government?
There are no exact specifications for this. Macron could also wait until after the summer break of parliament to appoint a prime minister. However, the newly elected parliament will meet for its first session on 18 July. The President of the Parliament is elected. The following day a decision will be made about the vice-presidents and the composition of the committees.
What will happen if a government is not found?
Until now there have been governments in coalition with some unusual partners in France. This makes the negotiations more difficult. If a government cannot be formed, Macron could ask Prime Minister Attal to remain in office with the current government in an active capacity. This transition period may last several weeks. Macron could then establish a technical government made up of experts, senior administrators and economists. It will only be possible to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in one year.
Macron has already asked Attal to remain in office for now to “preserve the stability of the country.” Macron is expected to postpone the complex formation of the government at least until after the Olympics, which will be held in Paris from July 26 to August 11.
What are the effects on Germany and Europe?
That is not clear. The left-wing coalition has so far left the question of leadership open. She has outlined the program and the points of agreement between the individual parts in a 26-page document on her website.
What is certain, however, is that the alliance, with the exception of individual parts on the fringes of the left wing, is clearly pro-European and firmly supports Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression. If there is a political position in France, Berlin and Brussels would no longer be able to count on France as a strong partner. The country would be more focused on managing than initiating new projects.
Take advantage of Le Pen Right-wing nationalists still from the election results?
Even if, contrary to the forecasts, the Rassemblement National has not become the strongest force and is still behind the presidential camp, Marine Le Pen’s party has made significant gains in the National Assembly. There is stronger representation than ever before. This increases the party’s influence on the work of the parliament and gets more money from party funding, which can be used to prepare for the presidential election in 2027 and the next parliamentary election at the latest.
What about Macron?
It will be clear in the coming days and weeks whether Macron will be able to salvage anything of his original claim as a reformer of France and a supporter of a strong Europe. If, contrary to prevailing expectations, he succeeds in using tactics and concessions to create a majority that will be able to rule in the long term with the participation of his government camp, he could end up with a black eye.
However, since a coalition government has not been possible for the past two years under a much clearer balance of power, Macron’s remaining term in office may be about more than managing unstable conditions and traffic jams in France . It would be weakened in terms of domestic and foreign policy. Although the right-wing nationalists were prevented from winning the parliamentary election, Macron did more political harm than good.
Carolin Dylla, ARD Paris, tagesschau, July 8, 2024 8:54 am